Earth Day 1996: Taking Stock of the Planet

Release Date: 18 April 1996

Vancouver, B.C. >>> There are good reasons for Canadians to celebrate Earth Day (Monday, April 22). Environmental quality has been improving, the air is cleaner, the world is not running out of natural resources. and free trade and economic growth have made the planet a better place in which to live.

Of course The Fraser Institute's optimism will be countered next Monday by doomsdayish pronouncements that the planet cannot support us all, that we're running out of this, we've destroyed that, that we're doomed to annihilate ourselves and our environmental support system unless all human activity comes to a screeching halt. Or something along those lines.

"It is perhaps timely to challenge the environmentalists on some of their assertions by taking stock of a few down­to­earth facts," said Fazil Mihlar, policy analyst at The Fraser Institute.

MYTH #1: The world cannot support the growing number of people inhabiting the planet.

FACT: What many doomsayers forget is that the vast majority of people live in densely populated areas by choice. Indeed, the worldwide trend is for people to move from less to more populated areas.

In fact, if everyone in the world moved…
…to the U.S. state of Texas, the population density per square mile would be 20,705, or almost the same as Paris (20,185) or Toronto (20,420).
…to South Africa, the population density would be 11,502, which is less than Budapest (16,691) or Milan (13,806) and about the same as Berlin (11,026).
…to the United States, the population density would be 1,531 per square mile. This is about the same as Mauritius, a popular resort in the Indian Ocean.

MYTH #2: The world is dangerously close to running out of oil.

FACT: In 1972, the Club of Rome predicted that the world had between 20 and 31 years worth of known petroleum reserves. Twenty-four years later, known oil reserves are still growing, by a factor of 14.6 since 1948. Reserves exceeded one trillion barrels in 1990.

And just as the Club of Rome's estimate of oil reserves was wrong, estimates are often wrong for other resources, and usually by huge percentages. The table on the next page shows how the known reserve estimates have changed over the years.

MYTH #3: Without additional pollution controls on automobiles, harmful emissions will increase.

FACT: As older cars are retired, we can expect to see reductions of up to 50% in hydrocarbon emissions, 52% in carbon monoxide emissions, and 34% in nitrogen oxide emissions, without any changes in current standards.

MYTH #4: Economic growth and environmental quality are incompatible.

FACT: Economic growth and environmental quality are natural allies. As per capita incomes rise, many indicators of environmental quality improve. According to a World Bank analysis, sulphur dioxide emissions decline when per capita incomes reach US$3,670; fecal coliform bacteria declines at per capita incomes of US$1,375; and smoke and particulate matter decline when per capita incomes reach US$3,280.

MYTH #5: Free trade and environmental quality are incompatible.

FACT: Countries that are less open to trade tend to use older production processes that are more polluting than newer technologies. Moving from a closed to an open economy could decelerate pollution intensity growth from 35% to 5%.

MYTH #6: Air quality continues to deteriorate in North America.

FACT: Total emissions fell by 34% between 1970 and 1990. The most dramatic reductions have been lead (96.5%), carbon monoxide (40.7%), sulphur oxides (25.1%), and particulate matter (60.5%). See Tables below.

Known Reserves In Metric Tons
Ore	1950	1970	% Increase
Iron	19,000,000	251,000,000	1,321
Manganese	500,000	635,000	27
Chromite	100,000	775,000	675
Tungsten	1,903	1,328­	30
Copper	100,000	279,000	179
Lead	40,000	86,000	115
Zinc	70,000	113,000	61
Tin	6,000	6,600	10
Bauxite	1,400,000	5,300,000	279
Potash	5,000,000	118,000,000	2,360
Phosphates	26,000,000	1,178,000,000	4,430
Oil	75,000,000	455,000,000	507

The Air is Getting Cleaner (in millions of metric tons, except lead in thousands of metric tons)
				% change
Emission	1940	1970	1990	1940-1990	1970-1990
Particulate matter	23.1	18.5	7.5	-67.5	-60.5
Sulfur oxides	17.6	28.3	21.2	20.4	-25.1
Nitrogen oxides	6.9	18.5	19.6	184.0	5.9
VOCs	15.2	25.0	18.7	23.0	-25.2
Carbon monoxide	82.6	101.4	60.1	-27.2	-40.7
Lead	n.a.	203.8	7.1	n.a.	-96.5
Total emissions	145.4	191.9	127.1	-12.6	-33.8
Source: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, National Air Pollutant Emission Estimates, 1940­1990, March 1992.

Established in 1974, The Fraser Institute is an independent public policy organization based in Vancouver.

For further information contact:

Suzanne Walters, Director of Communications,
The Fraser Institute, (604) 714-4582,
Email suzannew@fraserinstitute.ca

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Last Modified: Wednesday, October 20, 1999.