Canada Clock Set Closer to Midnight

Latest setting reflects growing sense of inevitability of Quebec separation

Contact:

Suzanne Walters, Director of Communications
The Fraser Institute, (604) 714-4582 Email: suzannew@fraserinstitute.ca

Release Date: 10 April 1997

VANCOUVER, BC>>>  As a result of a deterioration in all three national unity measures tracked by the Fraser Institute, the Canada Clock has been set at six minutes to midnight, an advance of two minutes from the last setting on November 7, 1996 (11:52 pm). This indicates a measurable increase in the danger of national breakup, which according to this assessment now stands at nearly 50 percent over the next five years.

# 1 indicator: Panel of experts

The individuals on the panel use a standard format to independently assess the probability of national survival, and the results are averaged. The current assessment of Canada surviving with its present boundaries is 52.0 percent, down from 53.6 percent in November, and 54.1 percent in June, 1996.

Other probabilities assigned by the panelists are a 27.9 percent likelihood that ROC will be the surviving entity (down from 29.0 percent), and a 20.1 percent chance of fragmentation into a number of separate states (up from 17.4 percent).

Put another way, the panelists believe that if Quebec separates, the chances are about 58 percent that ROC will hang together, and 42 percent for fragmentation.

"The main factor that has changed in moving panel opinion this time seems to be a growing sense of the inevitability of separation," said Gordon Gibson, Senior Fellow in Canadian Studies at the Fraser Institute. "This in turn is fuelled by a perception that the sovereigntists are maintaining their momentum, and that there have been no federalist initiatives of sufficient strength to change this."

The views of the panel carry a 50 percent weight in the overall setting of the Canada Clock.

# 2 indicator: Leger and Leger poll

The Leger and Leger polling of Quebec opinion on the sovereignty option is conducted regularly for the Globe and Mail and Le Journal de Montreal. The historical record of this poll has been good. The last poll published before the referendum came within 0.2 per cent of the actual result.

At the last setting in November, the Leger number for the "Yes" side was 48.8 percent. Since then, it has topped 50 percent in one measurement, and has now settled back to 49.6 percent, for a small net increase. "This indicates either side could win a referendum held today," said Gibson. "It would depend on the effectiveness of the campaign for each side."

# 3 indicator: Fraser Institute Survey of Senior Investment Managers in Canada

The last comparable results of this regular survey were released in January 1997. (The survey to be released next week (15 April) will go into greater detail on actual investment activity in Quebec.) In June, 1996, the survey disclosed that 66 percent of the managers thought it was somewhat likely, i.e., more than a 50 percent probability, to very likely that Quebec would separate within the next five years. By November this number had declined to 61 percent, and by January had increased to 63 percent.

Using a weighting of 50 percent for the panel of experts, and 25 percent for the two other indicators, the Fraser Institute makes its own assessment of the likelihood of national disintegration, and represents this as a setting on the Canada Clock.

The clock could not of course reach midnight prior to actual separation, as there is always some chance of survival until then. The current setting indicates significant danger - close to a fifty-fifty chance of breakup - but at the same time, a significant chance of continuity. "With the renewed statements by Parti Quebecois spokespersons concerning a referendum in the foreseeable future, it now depends very much on the players," added Gibson.

CANADA CLOCK
Panel of Experts

Atlantic

John Crosbie, Chancellor of Memorial University and former Canadian Minister of Justice

Donald Savoie, prominent writer on constitutional matters and professor at the University of Moncton

Quebec

Lise Bissonnette, editor of Le Devoir

Andre Burelle, author of Le Mal Canadien and former constitutional advisor to the federal government

Claude Castonguay, former chair of the Laurentian Bank, senator and Quebec cabinet minister

Marcel Cote, senior partner of the consultancy firm SECOR and former advisor to the federal government

Jean-Luc Migue, professor at l'Ecole nationale d'administration publique

Ontario

Mike Duffy, senior television journalist on the Canadian unity file

Tom Courchene, professor at Queen's University and Canada's ranking social policy expert

Roy Green, prominent Ontario open-line host

Gordon Roberston, former Clerk of the Privy Council

Ronald Watts, professor at Queen's University and dean of Canada's constitutional experts

Robert Young, professor at the University of Western Ontario

Prairies

Lloyd Barber, former president of the University of Saskatchewan

Catherine Ford, senior political columnist at the Calgary Herald

Peter McCormick, professor at the University of Lethbridge and member of Premier Klein's constitutional advisory council

Peter Warren, Manitoba's senior open-line host

British Columbia

Rafe Mair, B.C.'s most prominent open-line host

John Richards, professor at Simon Fraser University and expert on unity issues

Established in 1974, The Fraser Institute is an independent public policy organization based in Vancouver.

For further information contact:

Suzanne Walters, Director of Communications,
The Fraser Institute, (604) 714-4582,
Email suzannew@fraserinstitute.ca

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