Global Warming: What you won't hear at Kyoto
Global warming is all the rage these days ... which enrages many doubting scientists
Contact:
Laura Jones, Director of Environmental Studies
The Fraser Institute, (604) 714-4547, Email: lauraj@fraserinstitute.caRelease Date: 1 December 1997
Vancouver, BC>>> Many Canadians have been led to believe that unless stringent policy measures are adopted at the Kyoto, Japan conference to curb the use of fossil fuels, the world will face major climatic disasters. Scientific evidence, however, does not support the doomsday predictions, according to a book released today by the Fraser Institute.
"The media have been so successful at promoting apocalyptic global warming scenarios that many remain unaware of the amount of bad scientific reporting, bad economics and bad judgement involved in any commitment to 'cure' global warming," said Laura Jones, environment economist at the Fraser Institute and editor of Global Warming: The Science and the Politics. "There is a fundamental question that is being leapfrogged in the public discussion of greenhouse gas emissions: Do they really need controlling?"
Ms. Jones stresses that current global warming projections and policy recommendations are based on computer models incapable of fully modelling the atmospheric system. "Large gaps in understanding about the way important variables -- such as oceans and clouds -- affect climate ... make the predictions of these models unreliable."
In fact, there is a good deal of uncertainty which the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has taken pains to admit. In its 1995 report, the IPCC noted that model results "cannot be considered as compelling evidence of a clear cause and effect link between climate change caused by human activity and changes in the earth's surface temperature."
The authors of the book raise other important questions regarding the credibility of the global warming scare. Dr. Patrick Michaels of the Department of Environmental Sciences at the University of Virginia explains: "The global temperature history, based upon measurements from satellites that became operational in 1979, leaves little doubt that a dramatic warming of the atmosphere is not occurring. Instead, this history shows a statistically significant net cooling, when averaged over the 18.5 year period." Michaels concludes: "The balance of evidence suggests there is, at best, a very small human influence on global climate."
The book also presents scientific information that has not been reported to the public by the media, including:
- the theory that changes in the sun cause climate change, as presented by Dr. Sallie Baliunas and Dr. Willie Soon from the Harvard Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics:
"According to recent findings based on measurements from NASA satellites," said Dr. Baliunas, "recorded changes in the sun's energy output over many decades ... could, if large enough, drive significant climate changes."
- the effect of increased concentrations of atmospheric CO2 on the growth and development of plants, as reviewed by Dr. Sherwood Idso of the U.S. Water Conservation Laboratory, Phoenix, Arizona:
"Atmospheric CO2 enrichment significantly stimulates the growth and development of plants, while dramatically enhancing their water use efficiency. Consequently, as the carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere [rises] ... so too [does] the productivity of the planet's vegetation. This CO2-induced increase in the planet's vegetative productivity is helping to boost crop yields worldwide at the same time that it helps natural ecosystems to maintain high levels of biodiversity."
- the lack of empirical evidence to prove that hurricanes have increased in number and intensity due to the "greenhouse effect", as explained by Dr. Robert Balling, Director of the Office of Climatology, Arizona State University:
"International scientific bodies have divorced themselves from popularized predictions [about the link between global warming and increased hurricane activity], and the most recent research shows that, in the future, there may be fewer hurricanes of less intensity doing less damage."
The authors of Global Warming: The Science and the Politics are especially concerned that the science of climate change is not well understood by the public. According to Dr. John Christy, professor of Atmospheric Science at the University of Alabama: "It is extremely frustrating as a scientist to see that every weather woe is now being blamed on 'climate change', when in fact these events are part of the natural variability of the climate system. Imposing severe 'remedies' likely will be misdirected, ineffective, unproductive and economically damaging."
Robert Davies from the University of Virginia adds, "the impulse of the non-scientific person is to blame just about any anomalous weather event on mankind's industrial productivity. Yet most of these projections fail under the scrutiny of scientific evidence. And if sound science is not the fundamental basis for policy decisions on global-climate change, then these decisions have no sound basis."
Established in 1974, The Fraser Institute is an independent public policy organization based in Vancouver.
For further information contact:
Suzanne Walters, Director of Communications,
The Fraser Institute, (604) 714-4582,
Email suzannew@fraserinstitute.ca
info@fraserinstitute.ca
4th Floor, 1770 Burrard Street, Vancouver, BC, Canada, V6J 3G7
Tel: (604) 688-0221 Fax: (604) 688-8539 Book Orders: 1-800-665-3558 ext. 580
You can contact us at the above email address for any comments or information requests. Please report any dead links or technical problems.