Canada Clock Set Back
Threat of Quebec separation diminished, according to survey.
Contact:
Suzanne Walters, Director of Communications
The Fraser Institute, (604) 714-4582 Email: suzannew@fraserinstitute.caRelease Date: 1 December 1997
VANCOUVER, BC>>> As a result of an improvement in two of the three indicators tracked by the Fraser Institute to set the Canada Clock, the new setting is 11 minutes to midnight. This is a considerable change from the 11:54 setting released on 10 April 1997, and the most optimistic setting since the measure was introduced in the spring of 1996, following the near-disaster of the October 1995 Quebec referendum.
#1 indicator: Panel of experts
The individuals on the panel (see attached list) use a standard format to independently assess the probability of national survival, and the results are averaged. Their current assessment of the probability of Canada surviving with its present boundaries is 58.5 percent, up from 52 percent in April of this year. Given the usual slow change in the average view of the panel, this has to be seen as a significant shift in expert opinion.
While the views of individual panelists are not made public, it is particularly interesting to note that the average view of the five Quebec members has now turned significantly more positive (for the survival of Canada).
Other probabilities assigned by the panelists are a 29.5 percent probability that Canada will eventually break into ROC (Rest of Canada) and Quebec. The probability of total fragmentation into a number of independent states is now put at about 14 percent. Put another way, the panelists believe that if Quebec separates, the chances are about 68 percent that ROC will hang together, and 32 percent that it will fragment.
"From the panelists' comments, the main factors this time seem to be a combination of the positive 'Plan A' aspects of the Calgary Declaration and the aggressive pro-federalist 'Plan B' activity of federal minister Stephane Dion," said Gordon Gibson, Senior Fellow in Canadian Studies at the Fraser Institute. "This in turn has been fueled by a perception that the sovereigntists are losing momentum. But one should caution that some of this may have been based on polls which have been quite volatile, and recently turned for the worse [see #3 indicator]." The views of the panel carry a weight of 50 percent in the setting of the clock.
#2 indicator: Leger and Leger poll
The Leger and Leger polling of Quebec opinion on the sovereignty option is conducted regularly for the Globe and Mail and Le Journal de Montreal. The historical record of this poll has been good. The last poll published before the 1995 referendum came within .2 percent of the result.
At the last setting of the Canada Clock (April '97) the Leger number for the "Yes" side was 49.6 percent. Since then it has dipped as low as 45 percent, and now sits at 48.1 percent. No real trend is apparent, and it is clear that a very large number of Quebecers still favour the sovereignty option. This indicator has a weight of 25 percent.
"The situation remains dangerous," said Gibson. "The Parti Quebecois has control of the agenda and the wording and timing of any new referendum question. But for now, at least, we have some evidence of progress."
#3 indicator: Fraser Institute Survey of Senior Investment Managers in Canada
The most recent version of this survey was released in September (before the Calgary Declaration). Over 50 managers, controlling more than $150 billion of Canadian pension fund investments, are surveyed. The survey disclosed that 69 percent of managers thought (with varying degrees of certainty) that it is likely that Quebec will separate within the next five years. This is the only indicator to move in a negative direction. This indicator has a weight of 25 percent.
Using weightings as described above, the Fraser Institute makes its own assessment of the likelihood of national disintegration, and represents this as a setting of the Canada Clock. The clock could not, of course, reach midnight prior to actual separation, as there is always some chance of survival until then. As well, it could not ever slip back to 11 o'clock (zero probability of separation), though it could get very close.
CANADA CLOCK
Panel of Experts
Atlantic
John Crosbie, Chancellor of Memorial University and former Canadian Minister of Justice
Donald Savoie, prominent writer on constitutional matters and professor at the University of Moncton
Quebec
Lise Bissonnette, editor of Le Devoir
Andre Burelle, author of Le Mal Canadien and former constitutional advisor to the federal government
Claude Castonguay, former chair of the Laurentian Bank, senator and Quebec cabinet minister
Marcel Cote, senior partner of the consultancy firm SECOR and former advisor to the federal government
Jean-Luc Migue, professor at l'Ecole nationale d'administration publique
Ontario
Mike Duffy, Ottawa Editor BBS News, and senior television journalist on the Canadian unity file
Tom Courchene, professor at Queen's University and Canada's ranking social policy expert
Roy Green, prominent Ontario open-line host
Gordon Roberston, former Clerk of the Privy Council
Ronald Watts, professor at Queen's University and dean of Canada's constitutional experts
Robert Young, professor at the University of Western Ontario
Prairies
Lloyd Barber, former president of the University of Saskatchewan
Catherine Ford, senior political columnist at the Calgary Herald
Peter McCormick, professor at the University of Lethbridge and member of Premier Klein's constitutional advisory council
Peter Warren, Manitoba's senior open-line host
British Columbia
Rafe Mair, B.C.'s most prominent open-line host (CKNW)
John Richards, professor at Simon Fraser University and expert on unity issues
Established in 1974, The Fraser Institute is an independent public policy organization based in Vancouver.
For further information contact:
Suzanne Walters, Director of Communications,
The Fraser Institute, (604) 714-4582,
Email suzannew@fraserinstitute.ca
info@fraserinstitute.ca
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