Public support of the Klein government defies conventional political wisdom

Contact:

Barry Cooper, Senior Fellow
The Fraser Institute
Telephone: (403) 220-5764
Email: barryc@fraserinstitute.ca

Lydia Miljan, Director, Alberta Initiative
The Fraser Institute
Telephone: (403) 216-7175
Email: lydiam@fraserinstitute.ca

Release Date: 9 February 2001

CALGARY, AB — Alberta's Klein government has defied the traditional political strategy of undertaking short-term policies most likely to maximize voter support. Opinion polls indicate that this position has been rewarded with strong public support for the government's long-term focus on fiscal prudence and debt reduction, says a new study, Shifting Priorities: From Deficit Spending to Paying Down the Debt and Lowering Taxes [or view by .pdf file, 878K], released today by The Fraser Institute.

The analysis uses data from a series of public opinion surveys—the Alberta Advantage Surveys conducted in 1995, 1996, 1999, and 2000—to trace the impact on Albertans of the Klein government's policies.

The government has drastically cut spending on highly-valued social programs, not immediately reduced taxes, and yet continued to become increasingly popular regardless of the criticism of a well-organized opposition. Barry Cooper, Senior Fellow at The Fraser Institute, and the study's co-author, argues that an electorate will change its thinking on such matters through a combination of the right leadership, consistent forward-thinking policies, constant priming and preference shaping, and neutralizing the opposition.

"Albertans strongly supported the general principle of deficit elimination far more than they opposed in detail the speed and size of program cuts. Subsequently, after having absorbed the pain, they take pride in the province's gains, support the targeted reinvestment strategy, and approve of the condition of the province's social programs," says Cooper.

Klein has followed an unusual electoral strategy: instead of trimming and modifying policy to attract the support of median voters, those who are conventionally seen as inhabiting the middle of a left-right political spectrum, he took a clear position, convinced Albertans that it was a reasonable and a correct position, and argued strenuously that together they would persevere no matter how tough the going got.

"Although the implications of downsizing government were bound to create additional opposition, Klein succeeded in increasing his majority in 1997. Polls indicate his government is poised to win again in 2001," notes Cooper, "Alberta's experience sets a powerful example for other provincial governments to follow."

Among the findings of this study:

• Sixty-nine percent of Albertans approve of the Klein government's performance.



• Fifty-seven percent of Albertans believe the government's top priority should be to pay down the debt or reduce taxes. This is a clear shift from 1999 when nearly two of three Albertans (62%) said they would prefer to use the surplus revenue for targeted spending on priority programs.



• Most Albertans, some 92%, indicate they are satisfied with the financial situation of the provincial government, an 11% increase from 1999. Nearly two out of three Albertans (63%) say they are very satisfied, which is a 40% increase from 1999.



• Although user fees were relatively popular in 1995, support for this particular policy appears to be in decline. The most recent results show that only two in every five Albertans (40%) agree with the idea of having to pay user fees.



• Support for deficit reduction is a far more powerful predictor of support for the government's performance than are attitudes toward the speed and size of budget cuts.



• Albertans opposed to corporate and sales taxes are more likely than those who support them to approve of the government's actions.



• During the mid-1990s, there was considerable criticism of the government's policy. The most recent survey indicates that things may well be changing: 67% of Albertans, for example, indicate they are satisfied with the amount of money the Klein government has spent on social programs. More than 60% are satisfied with health care, education, and social welfare systems.

Established in 1974, The Fraser Institute is an independent public policy organization based in Vancouver, with offices in Calgary and Toronto.

For further information or for an electronic copy of Shifting Priorities contact:

Suzanne Walters, Director of Communications,
The Fraser Institute, (604) 714-4582,
Email suzannew@fraserinstitute.ca.

The media release and a .pdf file of the study can be viewed on the Institute's web site at www.fraserinstitute.ca.

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