Finance Minister's Approval Rating Jumps Following Budget, but More Spending Cuts Required, Say Investment Managers of $230 Billion in Canadian Assets
CONTACT: Ted Dixon, Survey Coordinator,
The Fraser Institute (604) 688-0221 ext. 549
EMBARGO DATE: June 2,1995
Media Release
Vancouver, B.C.>> Finance Minister Paul Martin's approval rating has risen following the federal budget according to the Fraser Institute's spring Survey of Senior Investment Managers. The survey of 50 top-level Canadian investment officers representing approximately $230 billion of assets under management found that 80% of respondents rated the Finance Minister's performance as good or better while only 20% assigned the Minister a poor rating or worse. In the Fraser Institute's winter survey conducted before the federal budget, 60% of respondents rated the Finance Minister's performance as good or better while 40% rated him as doing a poor, very poor or unacceptable job.
Deficit Reduction Still the Most Important Issue facing Canada
The Fraser Institute's spring survey also found that 78% of fund managers surveyed still believe that deficit reduction is the most important issue facing the federal government. Eighty-six percent of respondents identified deficit reduction as the most important issue in last quarter's survey.
Background: The Survey of Senior Investment Managers
The Fraser Institute received 50 responses to its mail survey of 144 Canadian pension fund and investment managers. The Institute sent surveys to the senior investment officer at major investment fund management firms and pension divisions of Canadian organizations that manage their pension plans in-house. Responses were received between March 21 and May 2,1995. The respondents represent $140 billion of pension fund assets and a total of $230 billion of assets under management. The Institute conducts the survey quarterly and the results are available by subscription.
Furthermore, all the respondents (100%) believe that the federal government will have to make additional spending cuts above those announced in this year's federal budget.
Concern over National Unity Rises
Ten percent of the respondents in the spring survey identified national unity and the Quebec referendum as the most important federal issue. Two percent selected national unity as the most important issue in the previous survey.
Balanced Budget Seen as Unlikely by the Year 2000.
Only 22% of those surveyed believe the federal government will be able to balance the budget by the year 2000. Sixty percent indicated that the chances were either unlikely or very unlikely that the federal government would be able to balance its budget by the turn of the century.
Fiscal Problems are Greatest Risk to Financial Market Stability
Fifty-eight percent of respondents identified either the federal fiscal situation or the fiscal situations of Ontario and Quebec as the issue or event which poses the greatest risk to the stability of Canadian financial markets over the next 6 months. Twenty percent felt the Quebec referendum poses the greatest risk.
Click here to view Survey of Senior Investment Mgrs. Paul Martin's Performance Rating
Quebec Sovereignty Viewed as Unlikely
Seventy-eight percent of respondents in the spring survey said that it was unlikely or very unlikely that Quebec would separate from Canada within the next 5 years. This is up from the 58% of respondents in the winter survey who indicated that it was unlikely or very unlikely that Quebec would separate. Only eight percent in the spring survey indicated that it was at least somewhat likely that Quebec would separate compared to 16% in the winter survey.
Spending Cuts and Tax Increases Expected in Ontario
When asked how the Ontario government will make up for any short fall in federal transfer funding in the areas of health, welfare and education, 73% of respondents said it would be done through both increased taxation and reduced provincial spending. Only 47% listed increased provincial borrowing as a means to deal with the expected reduction in federal cash payments to the province.
The Bank of Canada Keeps High Marks
The Bank of Canada maintained its high approval rating in this survey. Fifty-two percent of respondents said the Bank was doing a good job in conducting monetary policy. Thirty-eight percent rated the Bank's performance as very good or excellent. Ten percent said it was doing a poor job. In the winter survey, 55% rated the Bank's performance as good and 43% rated it as very good or excellent while 2% gave it a poor rating.
Click here to view Survey of Senior Investment Managers Most Important Issue Facing the Federal Government
The following are the text and results of the questions:
Click here to view results of the question How would you rate the performance of Paul Martin to date?
Click here to view results of the question The most important issue facing the federal government at this time is:
Click here to view results of the question How likely do you rate the chances of the federal government achieving a balanced budget or surplus by the fiscal year 1999/2000?
Click here to view results of the question Do you believe the federal government will need to make further spending cuts in future years above what was announced in this year's budget?
Click here to view results of the question Indicate which issue or event poses the greatest risk to the stability of Canadian financial markets over the next 6 months.
Click here to view results of the question How likely do you rate the chances of the following statement being true? The province of Quebec will separate within the next 5 years.
Click here to view results of the question How do you believe the province of Ontario will make up for any shortfall in federal funding?
Click here to view results of the question How would you rate the current performance of the Bank of Canada in its conduct of monetary policy?