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The
Economic Freedom
Network

 

International comparison

One way to assess the indebtedness of a nation is to compare it to other nations. Accordingly, a standard feature of the annual calculation of the total liabilities of Canadian governments has been a comparison with the debt levels of other countries.

Countries are compared using the amount of debt per person within a country compared to the discretionary income per person (the level of income earned above the subsistence level). This method of assessing debt levels by including income statistics takes into account the ability of nations to service their debt.

Table 6 ranks jurisdictions from best to worst on the basis of their debt calculated as a percentage of discretionary income. For instance, Ontario ranks 86th out of 151 jurisdictions with a ratio of 74.9 percent. This means that the debt per person accumulated by Ontario represents 74.9 percent of the average person's total annual income less an allowance for a minimum level of subsistence.

Table 6: Debt Rankings, percentage of Discretionary Income, 1995

Rank

Country

          Debt to Discretionary Income

1

Norway

(23.5)

2

Korea, Rep.

(20.9)

3

Finland

(10.4)

4

Estonia

8.4

5

Belarus

8.8

6

Latvia

8.8

7

Uzbekistan

9.4

8

Japan

11.9

9

Ukraine

11.9

10

Lithuania

12.5

11

Turkmenistan

12.7

12

Fiji

13.1

13

Azerbaijan

15.3

14

Botswana

17.2

15

Armenia

17.3

16

Slovenia

19.2

17

Kazakstan

20.2

18

Romania

21.2

19

Croatia

21.3

20

Sweden

24.1

21

Brazil

24.1

22

St. Lucia

24.3

23

China

24.7

24

Moldova

25.4

25

St. Kitts and Nevis

25.9

26

Guatemala

26.1

27

Oman

26.6

28

Kyrgyz Republic

27.4

29

Swaziland

27.7

30

Australia

28.5

31

Lebanon

28.5

32

Colombia

29.9

33

El Salvador

30.6

34

Uruguay

30.7

35

Argentina

32.7

36

Paraguay

33.3

37

Barbados

35.3

38

Slovak Republic

35.5

39

Thailand

36.3

40

France

36.7

41

Russian Federation

37.7

42

Poland

38.2

43

Iceland

38.4

44

Czech Republic

38.7

45

Chile

39.5

46

YUKON TERRITORY

40.7

47

Malaysia

42.1

48

United Kingdom

42.1

49

Dominican Republic

43.3

50

Dominica

43.5

51

Grenada

43.5

52

Costa Rica

44.1

53

Albania

44.4

54

Denmark

44.8

55

Germany

45.2

56

Netherlands

46.1

57

Tonga

46.3

58

Turkey

47.9

59

United States

48.2

60

NORTHWEST TERRITORIES

48.2

61

Belize

48.4

62

Mauritius

48.5

63

Bhutan

49.3

64

Spain

49.9

65

Austria

50.1

66

Trinidad and Tobago

50.2

67

Venezuela

50.4

68

Solomon Islands

54.7

69

ALBERTA

54.9

70

Peru

58.1

71

BRITISH COLUMBIA

59.0

72

Papua New Guinea

59.1

73

Tunisia

60.6

74

India

60.9

75

SASKATCHEWAN

63.8

76

Philippines

64.0

77

Indonesia

66.3

78

Djibouti

68.7

79

Maldives

68.9

80

MANITOBA

69.2

81

Canada

70.3

82

Mexico

71.1

83

Tajikistan

71.5

84

QUEBEC

74.0

85

Hungary

74.7

86

ONTARIO

74.9

87

PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND

75.4

88

Macedonia, FYR

76.4

89

NEW BRUNSWICK

76.5

90

Morocco

80.4

91

Pakistan

81.8

92

Sri Lanka

85.7

93

St. Vincent and the Grenadines

87.2

94

Ecuador

88.1

95

Georgia

89.0

96

NOVA SCOTIA

89.4

97

Algeria

89.8

98

NEWFOUNDLAND

90.6

99

Egypt, Arab Rep.

92.8

100

Lesotho

98.9

101

Gabon

100.0

102

Bulgaria

100.5

103

Panama

103.6

104

Jamaica

108.2

105

Zimbabwe

108.4

106

Haiti

110.3

107

Bolivia

110.3

108

Italy

110.8

109

Senegal

115.9

110

Mongolia

124.9

111

Belgium

125.3

112

Guinea

130.7

113

Comoros

149.4

114

Syrian Arab Republic

150.1

115

Honduras

160.1

116

Uganda

166.0

117

Cameroon

170.0

118

Nigeria

174.0

119

Kenya

175.3

120

Central African Republic

178.5

121

Ghana

184.2

122

Cambodia

216.8

123

Bangladesh

227.6

124

Gambia, The

235.4

125

Lao PDR

249.7

126

Cote d'Ivoire

252.3

127

Zambia

282.0

128

Togo

288.6

129

Burkina Faso

297.6

130

Equatorial Guinea

307.5

131

Yemen, Rep.

311.3

132

Congo

358.7

133

Mauritania

378.6

134

Vietnam

383.7

135

Guyana

475.5

136

Mali

479.2

137

Madagascar

615.0

138

Angola

655.9

139

Nepal

785.8

140

Niger

787.3

141

Nicaragua

836.5

142

Sao Tome and Principe

1,266.7

143

Guinea-Bissau

1,467.6

144

Sierra Leone

2,180.7

145

Ethiopia

(103.7)

146

Mozambique

(388.0)

147

Tanzania

(402.3)

148

Malawi

(667.9)

149

Burundi

(1,373.5)

150

Chad

(2,171.5)

151

Rwanda

(2,310.5)

Sources: OECD, Economic Outlook 62, December 1997; World Bank, World Development Indicators CD-ROM, 1997; Statistics Canada, Canadian Federal and Provincial government budgets, calculations by the authors.

To compare jurisdictions in the same income groups, with similar income and consumption patterns, countries are separated according to their income levels per person using modified World Bank classifications   (see Appendix D). The ranking shows several interesting results. Norway, South Korea, and Finland, which took the top three spots in the overall ratings, have governments that are net providers of capital. All three governments have negative net debt, as indicated by the negative ratio in Table 6, since they have more financial assets than gross debt.

Click Here to Appendix D

At the bottom of the ranking, Rwanda, Chad, Burundi, Malawi, Tanzania, Mozambique, and Ethiopia all reported negative discretionary income levels. In other words, the average citizen in these countries does not earn the level of income necessary for subsistence. The annual study of human development by the United Nations (United Nations Development Programme 1997) provides further evidence of the poverty in these particular countries. It reports that the average life expectancy in these countries is 42.7 years. The average life expectancy for all developing countries is 61.8 years. In addition, these nations fall below the subsistence level of daily caloric intake: a subsistence diet is 2,869 calories but average consumption in these seven countries is only 1,841 calories. The United Nations study corroborates the findings of this study; that these countries are being crushed by debt and an inability to generate income.

Ten of the 14 former Soviet republics--Estonia, Belarus, Latvia, Uzbekistan, Ukraine, Lithuania, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Kazakhstan--rank within the top 20. In fact, former Soviet republics dominate the top 10, occupying positions 4 through 7, 9 and 10. The principal reason for their success is the Zero Option Agreement (1993), by which the newly formed Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) assumed all the debt of the former Soviet Union while the new republics forfeited all claims against assets of the former Soviet Union (Boote et al. 1995: 81). In this study, the entire stock of external debt for the former Soviet republics consists of debt accumulated since 1993; the external debt of these countries stood at $15.3 billion by the end of 1994. The bulk of the debt was issued to ``transform and stabilize the economy'' and ``finance imports'' (Boote et al. 1995: 82). External debt grew to $21.2 billion in 1995. The former Soviet republics currently have an advantage due to their relatively small debt stock. However, if they continue to accumulate debt as quickly as they have been, they will erode this advantage.

The results for Canada and the provinces are remarkably poor. The Yukon ranks the highest of any Canadian region at 46th while Newfoundland ranks the lowest at 98th. Table 7 summarizes the ranking of each region in Canada.

Table 7: Canadian Rankings, 1995

Overall Rank

Region

Debt-to-GDP

Debt-to-Discretionary-Income

1

46

Yukon Territory

40.4

40.7

2

60

Northwest Territories

47.9

48.2

3

69

Alberta

54.5

54.9

4

71

British Columbia

58.5

59.0

5

75

Saskatchewan

63.2

63.8

6

80

Manitoba

68.5

69.2

7

81

Canada

69.6

70.3

8

84

Quebec

73.3

74.0

9

86

Ontario

74.3

74.9

10

87

Prince Edward Island

74.4

75.4

11

89

New Brunswick

75.6

76.5

12

96

Nova Scotia

88.2

89.4

13

98

Newfoundland

89.3

90.6

Sources: see table 6.

More important than the overall rankings are the relative rankings generated from the specific comparison with other high-income nations belonging to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) (see Appendix D[1]). Canada ranks third lowest; only Italy and Belgium rank lower. Among the G-7 nations, Canada is second to last and, while Canada is considerably above Italy, it is also significantly below the other G-7 nations. Japan ranks eighth overall, and first among G-7 nations with a ratio of debt to discretionary income per person of 11.9 percent while Canada ranks 81st overall and sixth in the G-7 with a ratio of 70.3 percent.

Implications

Canada has few options in selecting a strategy for eliminating its deficits and debt. Since tax rates are high compared to those of other G-7 nations, only spending reductions can be used to eliminate debt without affecting global competitiveness. In a recent study by the Canadian Institute of Actuaries, Canada ranked first in personal income tax, second in indirect and ``other'' taxes, fourth in corporate taxes, and last in payroll taxes (Canadian Institute of Actuaries 1995: 20). A recent OECD publication (OECD 1997b) shows that, excluding social security taxes, Canadians already pay 1.4 percentage points more of their income to government than the average citizen of the European Community. Lower social-security taxes in Canada are due mostly to the fact that our population is younger. When the promises we have made to ourselves about social security and health care have to be delivered, the tax burden of Canadians will increase dramatically--witness the recent CPP/QPP reforms that will increase public pension contributions from 6 percent to 9.9 percent, the largest tax increase in Canadian history.

The relatively high level of Canadian and provincial debt offers an explanation for the higher-than-average interest rates and persistently high unemployment rates in our recent past. While debt is not the sole cause of high interest rates or unemployment, it is certainly a contributing factor. Interest is the payment demanded by individuals who forego current consumption and make their savings available to borrowers. When the risk of default is high, higher interest rates (risk premiums) compensate these lenders. As government debt increases relative to the size of revenues, the risk of default increases and the risk premium goes up; increasing debt places upward pressure on interest rates.

A high interest rate is a key contributor to unemployment since businesses postpone borrowing for investment projects. A recent publication from the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives (an Ottawa-based, labour-supported, think tank), notes the damaging effects of high interest rates on job creation (Cameron and Finn 1998: 18-19). This report also highlights the need for a plan to reduce interest rates, to reduce the stock of debt relative to the size of the economy, and to eliminate the default-risk premium. Recently, the decrease in the rate at which Canadian governments are accumulating debt and the increasing focus on fiscal responsibility has lessened the upward pressure on interest rates.

Click here to Figure 4





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