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Environmental Indicators
|
| Total Forest Area | Federal (%) | Provincial (%) | Private (%) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newfoundland | 22.5 | 0 | 99 | 1 |
| Prince Edward Island | 0.29 | 1 | 7 | 92 |
| Nova Scotia | 3.9 | 3 | 28 | 69 |
| New Brunswick | 6.1 | 1 | 48 | 51 |
| Quebec | 83.9 | 0 | 89 | 11 |
| Ontario | 58 | 1 | 88 | 11 |
| Manitoba | 26.3 | 1 | 94 | 5 |
| Saskatchewan | 28.8 | 2 | 97 | 1 |
| Alberta | 38.2 | 9 | 87 | 4 |
| British Columbia | 60.6 | 1 | 95 | 4 |
| Yukon | 27.5 | 100 | 0 | 0 |
| Northwest Territories | 61.4 | 100 | 0 | 0 |
| Canada | 417.6 | 23 | 71 | 6 |
Source: CFS 1998: 22-28.
Not only do the provinces own most of Canada's forested land, under the Canadian Constitution they are also responsible for forest management. This responsibility includes determining and monitoring harvesting levels and practices in Canada as well as ensuring regeneration. To fulfil this responsibility, each province allocates to business operators permits or specific rights to harvest timber on Crown land. These licenses are typically for periods of 15 years to 25 years and carry with them the responsibility of ensuring successful regeneration. In addition to meeting standards set out in the licence, licensees are encouraged to meet the national standards for Sustainable Forest Management that were developed in 1996 by the Canada Standards Association. Compliance with these standards is voluntary (Armson 1999: 25-26).
To allocate harvesting permits the government determines acceptable harvesting levels for specified areas by the allowable annual cut (AAC). The AAC calculation is not a measure of total new growth but rather a measure of growth available for commercial harvesting. It is calculated by considering the quantity and quality of species, the accessibility of the trees, growth rates, sensitivity of the site, and potential or existing competing uses.
To evaluate trends in forests, this section examines trends in harvesting, replanting, and regeneration. The preservation of old-growth stands and the practice of clear-cutting are also addressed separately since they remain topical environmental concerns.
The area of forest harvested in Canada increased by 48.7 percent between 1975 and 1995 (figure 5.5). The largest increase was in Quebec at 164.6 percent. This increase is substantially higher than that of the other two main roundwood-producing provinces, British Columbia and Ontario, where the area harvested increased by 20.8 percent and 7.6 percent, respectively.32 In the Prairie provinces, the area harvested increased by 60.0 percent (Manitoba 18.1 percent; Saskatchewan 25.2 percent; and Alberta 107.1 percent). In the Maritime provinces, the area harvested increased by 23.0 percent (Newfoundland 25.7 percent; Prince Edward Island 95.7 percent; Nova Scotia 83.3 percent, New Brunswick 3.8 percent).
Source: Statistics Canada 1999a: databank numbers F3314, F3344, F3350, F3356, F3362, F3368, F3374, F3380, F3386, F3320, F3326, F3332, F3338.
Figure 5.5 also shows the location of the areas harvested. In 1995, 35.3 percent of the total area harvested was located in Quebec, 20.9 percent was in Ontario, 18.7 percent was in British Columbia and 8.0 percent and 7.2 percent was in the Prairie and Maritime provinces.
Although harvest areas are increasing, only a small portion of Canada's forest resources is harvested each year (figure 5.6). Of Canada's 418 million hectares of forestland, 56 percent (234.5 million hectares) are classified as commercially viable forests. However, of these 234.5 million hectares only 28 percent (119 million hectares) are being managed for timber purposes. Only 1 million hectares were actually harvested in 1997. This is 0.4 percent of commercial forests and less than 0.2 percent of total forests--less than the amount of forest lost annually to natural events: approximately 0.5 percent of Canada's total forests are lost to outbreaks of fire or infestation by insects each year (CFS 1998: 5).
Source: Adapted from CFS 1998: 6.
Harvest levels have also remained within the defined sustainable limits. Figure 5.7 shows that the national harvest level has remained below the Allowable Annual Cut (AAC) throughout the period from 1970 to 1996. Data for both hardwood and softwood up to 1993 similarly shows that, with the exception of 1989, harvest levels for hardwood and softwood have remained below their respective AACs (Environment Canada 1996c: record 5731).
Most provincial harvest levels are below the AAC as well (table 5.2). The percentage of the AAC that is actually harvested is especially low in Manitoba (22 percent). Nova Scotia is the only province where the harvest level exceeds the AAC. Although it appears that British Columbia has also harvested above its AAC level, the AAC for this province does not include all private lands whereas the harvest level does. Harvest levels in British Columbia have been below the AAC in the past few years.
Source: data from 1970 to 1995 from Environment Canada 1997d; data from 1996 from Canadian Forest Service 1998.
Notes 1: Ontario measures its AAC in hectares, whereas all other provinces and territories measure AAC in cubic metres. Note 2: British Columbia does not include all private lands in its AAC. Saskatchewan, Alberta and Ontario do not include any private lands. Note 3: Harvesting data only considers data for industrial roundwood even though the harvest level for fuel-wood or firewood for a single province may range as high as 2.2 million cubic metres. Note 4: Harvesting levels on federal lands are not included.
| Harvest Level | Annual Allowable Cut | % of AAC harvested | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newfoundland | 2.1 | 2.6 | 80.8% |
| Prince Edward Island | 0.4 | 0.5 | 80.0% |
| Nova Scotia | 5.6 | 5.3 | 105.7% |
| New Brunswick | 10.8 | 11.2 | 96.4% |
| Quebec | 35.9 | 58 | 61.9% |
| Ontario | 0.212 | 0.4 | 53.0% |
| Manitoba | 2.1 | 9.7 | 21.6% |
| Saskatchewan | 4 | 7.6 | 52.6% |
| Alberta | 20 | 24 | 83.3% |
| British Columbia | 72.1 | 71.6 | 100.7% |
| Yukon | 0.38 | 0.5 | 76.0% |
| Northwest Territories | 0.18 | 0.24 | 75.0% |
Source: CFS 1998: 22-28.
While harvest levels have been increasing, there has also been an increase in the amount of harvested land that is replanted. Table 5.3 displays the area that is replanted annually as a percentage of the area harvested from 1975 to 1995. During this period, the percentage of harvested land replanted in Canada more than doubled from 18.7 percent to 43.1 percent. In 1995, the percentage of harvested area replanted in British Columbia was 108.9 percent, in Ontario, 30.6 percent, and in Quebec, 21.2 percent. Since 1975, these values have increased by 170 percent, 100 percent and 80 percent, respectively: although harvesting levels are increasing, the area replanted is increasing at a greater rate. In British Columbia and Alberta for some years the percentage of area harvested that is replanted is greater than 100 percent: in these years more areas were replanted than harvested.
| Canada | NF | PE | NS | NB | QC | ON | MB | SK | AB | BC | YT | NT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 18.7 | 0.0 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 7.1 | 11.8 | 15.3 | 12.6 | 20.9 | 23.4 | 40.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1976 | 17.1 | 0.0 | 7.5 | 4.7 | 8.7 | 8.4 | 16.7 | 6.2 | 20.7 | 25.2 | 34.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1977 | 16.5 | 0.0 | 7.5 | 8.2 | 11.1 | 8.6 | 14.1 | 4.6 | 27.8 | 25.6 | 33.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1978 | 15.6 | 0.0 | 5.9 | 10.2 | 12.0 | 6.2 | 14.1 | 6.1 | 27.0 | 32.3 | 29.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1979 | 16.3 | 1.0 | 4.7 | 7.9 | 15.7 | 5.8 | 14.1 | 2.3 | 27.9 | 33.5 | 34.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1980 | 16.8 | 2.4 | 22.7 | 10.2 | 25.7 | 5.6 | 13.3 | 4.9 | 34.2 | 14.7 | 33.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1981 | 20.3 | 13.8 | 17.3 | 13.9 | 33.8 | 6.4 | 16.8 | 15.6 | 22.0 | 26.9 | 45.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1982 | 23.8 | 10.0 | 13.8 | 12.1 | 31.0 | 8.8 | 17.1 | 21.1 | 38.2 | 19.4 | 51.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1983 | 25.6 | 13.2 | 23.2 | 19.4 | 24.5 | 9.5 | 26.6 | 18.2 | 32.4 | 21.6 | 50.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1984 | 26.9 | 13.8 | 18.9 | 16.1 | 23.4 | 10.4 | 29.1 | 16.3 | 22.2 | 47.1 | 50.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1985 | 29.1 | 16.8 | 16.6 | 22.1 | 22.3 | 14.7 | 33.3 | 37.0 | 26.8 | 26.7 | 48.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1986 | 31.8 | 4.6 | 36.7 | 26.8 | 23.6 | 21.7 | 33.0 | 37.3 | 23.2 | 37.9 | 48.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1987 | 37.4 | 25.3 | 40.1 | 23.4 | 21.3 | 28.0 | 32.9 | 46.1 | 12.1 | 33.0 | 65.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1988 | 38.9 | 22.8 | 39.4 | 28.1 | 19.3 | 29.6 | 35.3 | 56.8 | 31.8 | 43.9 | 62.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1989 | 42.6 | 17.4 | 30.7 | 26.6 | 22.5 | 30.1 | 37.0 | 54.8 | 26.9 | 58.2 | 79.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1990 | 53.2 | 16.1 | 33.2 | 28.2 | 27.6 | 43.4 | 33.9 | 60.7 | 32.4 | 54.3 | 115.2 | NA | 24.6 |
| 1991 | 54.6 | 15.2 | 45.5 | 21.5 | 21.2 | 45.2 | 42.0 | 94.4 | 37.4 | 61.3 | 103.0 | NA | 8.8 |
| 1992 | 47.6 | 18.4 | 42.8 | 21.5 | 16.6 | 37.9 | 37.7 | 62.6 | 34.7 | 66.6 | 83.4 | NA | 13.6 |
| 1993 | 43.9 | 13.2 | 39.0 | 12.0 | 13.4 | 29.5 | 35.8 | 51.4 | 34.0 | 61.3 | 91.5 | 27.4 | 11.6 |
| 1994 | 46.5 | 15.5 | 22.7 | 13.1 | 16.6 | 24.4 | 35.1 | 53.5 | 29.2 | 68.3 | 114.0 | 20.3 | 15.9 |
| 1995 | 43.1 | 17.5 | 26.7 | 14.4 | 16.5 | 21.2 | 30.6 | 40.2 | 34.5 | 107.6 | 108.9 | 74.3 | 16.2 |
Source: Statistics Canada 1999a: databank numbers F3314, F3344, F3350, F3356, F3362, F3368, F3374, F3380, F3386, F3320, F3326, F3332, F3338; Statistics Canada 1999b: databank numbers F3483, F3583, F3603, F3623, F3643, F3663, F3683, F3703, F3723, F3503, F3523, F3543, F3563.
Trend data also illustrate that Canadian forests that are harvested are being successfully regenerated. Figure 5.8 shows the forest-regeneration status of harvested land from 1975 to 1995. The data is presented cumulatively meaning that each year displays the status of the area harvested that year as well as all previous years back to 1975. For example, the area displayed for 1975 represents the regeneration status of the area harvested during 1975. The area displayed for 1976 shows the regeneration status of the area harvested in both 1975 and 1976 and so on.
Source: Haddon 1999; calculations by authors.
Note: national data was obtained by summing up provincial data. With the exception of Alberta and British Columbia, these numbers are based on estimates; only Alberta and British Columbia complete a comprehensive survey of cutblocks. Data for the Northwest Territories is not included; however, the total harvested area since 1975 for the Northwest Territories is less than 5000 hectares.
The four classes in figure 5.8 are defined by the National Forestry Database Program as follows:
With the exception of the non-production class, these categories are progressive. An understocked area that is replanted properly should eventually reach stocked status. A stocked area will become enhanced as the trees grow and density-control objectives are met. Although data on fully regenerated areas are not displayed on the graph, it is expected that all areas classified as stocked or enhanced will fully regenerate naturally.
As illustrated in figure 5.8 , the area of harvested land that is understocked is no longer increasing. Instead, it peaked at the 1992 level of 2.4 million hectares and has levelled off since. This illustrates that even though harvesting levels are increasing, more land is being properly regenerated. The Canadian Council of Forest Ministers attributes this decrease in understocked land in proportion to the total amount harvested to expanding silviculture programs (CCFM 1996: 13). It is important to note that, although 20 percent of the cumulative area harvested was classified as understocked in 1995, most of this land is reported as understocked because of a time lag between treatments and observable results.
An old-growth forest is defined broadly as "a forest dominated by mature trees that has not been significantly influenced by human activity" (CCFM 1997: 124). Under this definition, old-growth forests could have one or more of the following characteristics: very large trees, very old trees, a distinct species composition, a multilayered canopy, a large accumulation of organic matter (Kimmins 1997: 144-46). The old-growth stage may be reached at different ages depending on the location of the site and the species of the trees.
Old-growth forests have considerable environmental and commercial value. Public interest in the conservation of old-growth forests focuses on the ecosystem as a whole: these forests contain a reservoir of gene diversity, provide habitat for diverse wildlife, and have recreational and aesthetic value. Foresters appreciate old-growth forests as a source of high-value timber. Approximately 90 percent of all territory logged in Canada is virgin forest, which usually has a higher volume of wood than the younger forests that will replace them (Environment Canada 1995a). Not all these virgin forests are old-growth forests, however, as natural disturbances such as fire and insects will alter forests untouched by humans.
The controversy over old-growth forests arises because these environmental and commercial uses are mutually exclusive. Even though rapid tree growth can produce large trees in some climates in 100 to 150 years (Kimmins 1997: 148), today's commercial cutting cycle of 50 to 80 years means that once harvested, old-growth ecosystems will not be re-established. As a result, while only 25 percent of professional foresters agreed with the statement that "most old growth forests should be protected," 86 percent of the public supported the view (CFS 1992: 41).
It is difficult to measure trends in old-growth forests since there is no comprehensive national inventory of Canada's old-growth forests and the definition for such forests remains vague. Data from the national forest inventory, however, do provide an inventory for commercial forests. These data suggest that there has been a decrease in the amount of old-growth forest. It reports that between 1981 and 1995 the total amount of mature, old or mixed-age forest fell from 103.87 million hectares to 102.23 million hectares, a difference of 1.64 million hectares. This decrease is quite small, however, as in 1981 44.29 percent of commercial forests were in the category of mature, old, or mixed-aged forests whereas the 1995 the level was only slightly lower at 43.59 percent (CFS 1998: 37).
A recent inventory of old-growth forests in British Columbia found that there is still a large amount of old-growth forest in the province.33 Old-growth forest covers 26.8 percent of the province, younger forest covers 36.1 percent, and 37.1 percent is unforested. Over seven percent of British Columbia is covered with forests older than 250 years. Many of these forests are over 400 years old, especially in the wetter areas along the coast and interior wet-belt. Old-growth forests represent 50 percent of spruce strands, 62 percent of hemlock stands, 87 percent of coastal stands of red cedar and 63 percent of interior stands of red cedar. Of these old growth forests, 13 percent, or 3.2 million hectares, is estimated to be in protected areas 34 (MacKinnon & Vold 1998: 310-14).
Although these data provide a glimpse of old-growth forests, more complete data are needed to examine the state of old-growth forests in Canada. Discussions on the total amount of old-growth forest are often meaningless since some of the ecological values attributed to old-growth forests are dependent upon not only the amount of old-growth forest but also the size and shape of the remaining patches (MacKinnon & Vold 1998: 310). Data on the location of old-growth forests are necessary as well. The report for British Columbia predicts that, even if the total amount of old-growth forest remains constant, there will be a redistribution of these forests; there will be more old-growth forests at higher elevations because of fire suppression and fewer in lower elevations due to harvesting. For a national overview, data on old-growth forests in other jurisdictions is also necessary.35
Clear-cutting is the silvicultural practice of completely clearing an area of all trees other than seedlings and occasional saplings. It is the most popular method of harvesting since it has many benefits. First, it is often more economically viable. Not only is clear-cutting less expensive than more selective harvesting practices but it also reduces reforestation costs since it facilitates site preparation and weed control. Second, in converting an unmanaged forest to a managed forest, clear-cutting is safer for forest workers than other harvesting methods since there is a lower risk of injury or death. Finally, clear-cutting is sometimes a better environmental practice since it is more compatible with cable systems that reduce the number of roads used to gain access to the area (Kimmins 1997: 80-82).
Despite these benefits, clear-cutting remains a contentious issue because of its misapplication in sensitive ecosystems. Clear-cutting, by definition, involves the removal of the forest in a particular area. This means that as new vegetation replaces the harvested trees there is a change in the plant species growing in the area. This, in turn, could negatively affect the level of nutrients and micro-organisms in the soil and the wildlife that lives in the areas. When clear-cutting is not performed properly, it can also damage watersheds and the ecosystems of rivers since the exposed land has a higher risk of soil erosion. Many people also oppose clear-cuts since they are not aesthetically pleasing.
In Canada, almost 90 percent of trees logged over the past two decades have been harvested by clear-cutting. The size of these clear-cut areas, however, has decreased over the past decade. A study conducted by the Canadian Pulp and Paper Association (CPPA) in 1990 found that the average clear-cut sizes in Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia were 110 ha, 69 ha, and 49 ha, respectively, with 8 percent of Quebec's clear-cuts larger than 200 ha. In contrast, recent provincial legislation in Quebec reduced the limit for clear-cut sizes from 250 ha throughout the province to 150 ha within boreal forest, 100 ha in mixed-wood forests and 50 ha in southern deciduous forest. Similarly, in British Columbia clear-cuts have been limited to 60 ha in the northern part of the province and 40 ha in the southern part. Provided that these smaller sizes do not increase fragmentation of the forests, the smaller size should assist in minimizing some of the negative effects of clear-cutting (Environment Canada 1996c: record 5734).
Canada has large reserves of important energy resources such as petroleum, natural gas, coal, and hydroelectric potential. By drawing on these resources, Canada's energy sector plays an important role in the global energy market. Canada is the world's third largest producer of natural gas and the eleventh largest producer of crude oil (CAPP 1999). Canada's energy sector also contributes substantially to our domestic economy. In 1998, approximately 7 percent of the gross domestic product and 8 percent of total merchandise exports were attributed to the energy industry, which employed about 280,000 Canadians (NEB 1999a: 2).
Canadians not only produce a great deal of energy; they are also amongst the world's most intensive users of energy. Canada ranks as the world's sixth largest user of primary energy (Environment Canada 1997b: 1).36 Environment Canada lists several reasons for this high use of energy: the cold climate, an energy-intensive industrial base, a large land area, and a widely dispersed population. Canada's energy consumption is also high because of the high standard of living (Environment Canada 1996c: records 6039-40).
In this section, trends for both energy consumption and production are examined. Consumption trends are interesting since they illustrate changes in energy use and efficiency over time. Production trends address concerns about Canada running out of energy reserves.
Figure 5.9 illustrates total domestic energy consumption by end use.37 During this period, energy consumption increased by 89.3 percent; generation of electricity at 180.7 percent showed the most significant increase. Residential use increased by 33.9 percent, commercial use, by 49.0 percent, and industrial use, by 58.9 percent. Energy consumption per capita has also increased by 37.7 percent over the past two decades (figure 5.10).
Source: NEB 1999a.
Source for population data: Statistics Canada1999e: various years; source for total consumption: NEB 1999a.
Note: Total energy consumption is defined here as the sum of total residential, commercial, industrial, transportation and non-energy uses, as well as the energy needed to produce electricity and producer consumption and loses.
In 1997, the largest uses of primary energy in Canada were for the production of electricity (25.6 percent) and industrial purposes (22.4 percent). Over 16 percent went to transportation, 12.3 percent was used residentially, and 7.6 percent was used by the commercial sector. The remaining 15.6 percent was used for non-energy purposes38 or was lost or consumed by energy producers during extraction or refinement. This distribution has changed from 1971 where industry was the largest user at 26.7 percent and electricity production accounted for only 17.3 percent.
Although both total and per-capita energy consumption have increased in the past two decades, Canadians have become more efficient users of energy. Between 1971 and 1997 energy consumption per dollar of real gross domestic product (GDP) fell steadily (figure 5.11); GDP increased by 119.2 percent whereas energy consumption increased by only 89.3 percent. This decline in energy consumption per capita is likely due to a combination of factors including improvements in energy efficiency and structural changes in the economy away from activities that require the use of more energy. One report studied the decline in energy demand between 1971 and 1988 and attributed 65 percent of the decline to energy efficiency and the remaining 35 percent to structural changes in the economy (Environment Canada 1996c: record 6052).
Sources: total consumption: NEB 1999a; GDP: Statistics Canada 1999d; 2000.
Note: Total energy consumption is defined here as the sum of total residential, commercial, industrial, transportation and non-energy uses, as well as the energy needed to produce electricity and producer consumption and loses.
Energy Efficiency Trends in Canada 1990-1996, a report by Canada's Office of Energy Efficiency, similarly illustrates that Canadians are becoming more energy efficient (Natural Resources Canada 1998). This report reviews trends in energy efficiency and energy use for the five key end-use sectors: residential, commercial, industrial, transportation, and agriculture. To evaluate improvements in energy efficiency during this period, it calculates changes in energy intensity, adjusting for weather and the structure of the economy. Changes in energy intensity is a good measure of energy efficiency improvements as it is a calculation of the change in the amount of energy needed to produce a fixed amount of output. An increase in energy intensity is a decrease in efficiency. The findings of the report are displayed in table 5.4.
| Percent of secondary use | Change in Energy Use (percent) | Change in Energy Intensity | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Residential | 19.0 | 12.3 | -6.3 |
| Commercial | 13.1 | 12.0 | -3.7 |
| Industrial | 38.3 | 11.8 | 1.4 |
| Transportation | 26.6 | 10.2 | |
| Passenger | 17.3 | 9.8 | -6.6 |
| Freight | 9.3 | 11.0 | -15.4 |
| Agriculture | 2.9 | 9.3 | NA |
Source: Natural Resources Canada 1998.
The greatest improvements in energy intensity were in transportation with freight, which improved 15.4 percent, and passenger transportation, which improved 6.6 percent. This change is due to the introduction of more efficient vehicles and the retirement of older inefficient vehicles. Residential energy intensity decreased 6.3 percent as a result of the introduction of more efficient space heaters and appliances. Commercial energy intensity fell by 3.7 percent, largely due to the improvement in buildings and equipment as well as energy management practices. Industrial energy intensity increased 1.4 percent over this period but there were improvements in some industries. While energy intensity increased in industries like pulp and paper (8.6 percent), mining (20.2 percent), chemicals (13.9 percent), and cement (5.4 percent), it decreased in petroleum refining (8.6 percent), smelting and refining (8.3 percent), iron and steel manufacturing (1.2 percent) and other manufacturing industries (13.4 percent).
During the period from 1971 to 1997, total production of primary energy increased by 115 percent with the largest increases in coal (368 percent) and nuclear (190 percent) (figure 5.12). Natural gas and petroleum, the two largest sources of energy, rose by 172.3 percent and 56.5 percent. Production of renewable energy sources also expanded as hydroelectric generation increased 116 percent and other renewables increased 16 percent.
Source: Statistics Canada 1999c.
The sources used to produce energy have changed greatly over the past few decades. Whereas crude oil accounted for 46.0 percent of total energy produced in 1971, it accounted for only 31.3 percent in 1997. During this same period natural-gas production expanded from 30.6 percent to 38.7 percent of total production. Nuclear power increased as a source from 1971 to 1997, though its operations have contracted to less than 2 percent of total energy production during the past few years. Alternative energy sources such as solar and wind power have increased in the past decade but remain small scale, producing only about 1/10 000th of the energy consumed in Canada (Environment Canada 1996c: record 6048).
A large portion of the energy produced is exported. In 1998, exports of crude oil were estimated at 209,900 cubic metres per day, a 34 percent increase from 1994 (NEB 1998: 8). Exports of natural gas totalled 87.4 billion cubic metres in 1998, approximately 55 percent of Canada's total production of natural gas (NEB 1998: 13). These high rates of production and exportation, coupled with the fact that oil and natural gas are non-renewable resources, have led some to predict that Canada will run out of oil and natural gas in the near future. Contrary to these predictions, the total amount of crude oil and natural gas discovered has increased throughout the past two decades (figure 5.13 & figure 5.14) and additions to established reserves continue to replace a percentage of the amount produced.
Source: Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers 1998.
Note 1: Arctic islands gas reserves included for first time in 1975 but removed in 1993. Note 2: Mackenzie Delta gas reserves included for first time in 1974 but removed in 1994. Note 3: East Coast Offshore booked first time in 1997. Note 4: Cumulative net production for 1965 includes data from 1955 to 1965.
Source: Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers 1998.
Note 1: East Coast Offshore reserves booked in 1981, Arctic Islands booked in 1985 and Mackenzie Delta/Beaufort Sea booked in 1985. Note 2: Cumulative net production for 1965 includes data from 1951 to 1965.
Yet, concerns about production levels remain since reserve additions are not fully replacing the amount of natural gas and oil produced. With the exception of 1983 and 1997, annual net production has exceeded annual gross reserve additions of crude oil (CAPP 1998).39 Similarly, natural gas additions have generally been below production levels since 1985 (CAPP 1998). For oil, this negative net change in reserves can be partially attributed to decreasing oil prices that have encouraged producers to switch from drilling oil wells to drilling for natural gas (NEB 1999c: 1).
While examining figures 5.13 and 5.14, it is important to remember that they display only data on established reserves. For crude oil, it has been estimated that an additional 4,615 million cubic metres of crude oil are undiscovered and another 1,031 cubic metres can be extracted from existing reserves because of technological advances (NEB 1999b). As a result, at the end of 1997 Canadians had extracted only 7.2 percent of their total estimated recoverable crude oil and bitumen resources. Similarly, there is a large amount of undiscovered natural gas: it is estimated that Canadians have produced between 14 and 17 percent of their economically recoverable natural-gas resources (NEB 1999c).40
In making a decision on the optimal level of energy production, many factors beyond current production levels need to be considered. For example, there will be greater ecological and economic costs as more oil is extracted from oil sands because of decreasing conventional oil reserves. Oil-sands projects not only tend to disturb more land per unit of oil produced than conventional projects but also to produce large amounts of contaminated sludge. The process of extracting oil from the sands is also more energy intensive, requiring approximately 9 to 12 cubic metres of oil sands to produce 1 cubic metre of bitumen (Environment Canada 1996c: record 6128). To be upgraded, this bitumen then needs to be processed.
The economic benefits of current production levels must also be considered. In 1997, the "upstream"41 crude-oil and natural-gas industry employed 83,000 people directly and 130,000 indirectly. With the addition of the "downstream" sector, the industry employed 447,000 Canadians (CAPP 1999). This industry also provides much revenue to the government: in 1997, industry payments to government for royalties, income taxes, and bonus payments totalled $8 billion (CAPP 1999). In reducing production levels these jobs and revenue may be lost.

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