Feature Article:

Betting on Canada—Plan A or Plan B?

by Gordon Gibson

Contents                  January 1996

Editor's Notes
This Issue's Authors
Betting on Canada—Plan A or Plan B?
Poverty Update
Calling a Slave a Slave Note
A Reading from the Book of Job Creation
Visitors
Land Power to the People Will Conclude Land Claims
Ottawa Should Follow Manitoba's Lead On Balanced Budget Laws

Editor's Notes

This first edition of Fraser Forum for 1996 is a bit different than usual. It contains a puzzle, of a kind. Gordon Gibson, our Senior Fellow in Canadian Studies, has developed a set of scenarios that he feels best summarize the potential futures Canada faces, depending on what actions it takes and what decisions it makes over the course of the next few months or years.

Gordon has condensed these scenarios into a diagram, which you can fill in with what you feel are the probabilities of the various scenarios happening. By way of guidance, he offers a comprehensive list of questions for you to ponder before you fill out the diagram. Then he provides a detailed example and chart to explain how to do the arithmetic so that you can uncover the final probability, in percent, as you see it, of any given scenario unfolding. There is even an opportunity for you to add scenarios of your own, if you feel they are necessary.

So get out your calculators and have a go. The results are bound to astound you­and perhaps give you cause for reflection and even some alarm.

This Issue's Authors

Gordon Gibson is The Fraser Institute's Senior Fellow in Canadian Studies. He has served both as an MLA and as leader of the B.C. Liberal Party (1975-79). He is a columnist and author of the recent Fraser Institute books Plan B: The Future of the Rest of Canada, and Thirty Million Musketeers: One Canada, For All Canadians.

Owen Lippert is Senior Policy Analyst at The Fraser Institute. He received his Ph.D. in History from the University of Notre Dame, Indiana.

Kristin McCahon is Director of Publication Production at The Fraser Institute. She has her M.A. in English Literature from the University of British Columbia.

Lydia Miljan is Director of the National Media Archive, a division of The Fraser Institute. She earned an M.A. in Communications from the University of Calgary. She researches and writes On Balance.

Kate Morrison is Co-ordinator of the National Media Archive. She has a B.A. (Honours) in Economics and Communications from Simon Fraser University.

Robin Richardson is Director of the International Centre for the Study of Public Debt, a division of The Fraser Institute. He has an M.A. in Political Economy from the University of Toronto, and is a Chartered Financial Analyst. He is the author or editor of several Institute publications.

John Robson is a freelance writer based in Ottawa. He has his Ph.D. in History from the University of Texas at Austin. He has written several Critical Issues Bulletins and many articles in Fraser Forum.

Christopher Sarlo teaches economics at Nipissing University in North Bay, Ontario. He is the author of Poverty in Canada, published by The Fraser Institute.

Karen Selick practices law in Belleville, Ontario. She is also a columnist for Canadian Lawyer.

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