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You Think Breaking Up Is Hard to Do?
George Graham
In the 1992 Fraser Institute book Federalism in
Peril, David Frum discussed the "nightmare fantasy" Canadians have
regarding the prospect of joining the United States. The nightmare comes from the belief,
shared by most Canadians, that union with the United States would be a bad thing. Why is
it also a fantasy? Because Canadians can't stop thinking about it.
The same is true in South Korea, formally known as the Republic of Korea. The fantasy is that South Korea and North Korea, otherwise known as the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, might come together as one country for the first time since Japan occupied the peninsula in 1910. And the nightmare? Well, there are several different nightmares competing for South Koreans' attention these days. Perhaps the only thing international observers can agree on is that North Korea is in the midst of a catastrophe. Twenty years ago, North Korea's industrial production was greater than South Korea's. Now its citizens are starving by the thousands. Cannibalism has been reported for the first time in remote villages. In a chilling response, the North Korean government has banned daytime funerals in some areas, and has prohibited the marking of graves. As if this weren't enough, North Korea's economy is shrinking by an estimated 5 percent per year. Why is this important for South Korea? The big issue is whether North Korea's landing will be hard or soft. A hard landing could lead to the deaths of millions of North Koreans from famine or through Kim Jong-il's determination to keep power at the point of a gun. It could also mean a last, desperate attempt by North Korea to annex its southern neighbour. The US State Department estimates that such a war would cause the deaths of perhaps a million people on both sides in just the first few days of fighting. North Korea's armed forces outnumber South Korea's by more than two to one. Recently, the North has been testing missile systems that can deliver its chemical and biological weapons anywhere in northeastern Asia, including all of Japan. Heightening fears is a recent suggestion by the South Korean government that people living in Seoul should buy gas masks. A soft landing for North Korea can only come if its leadership decides to open up the "Hermit Kingdom" to the rest of the world. North Korea has created some free trade zones, but it has all but prohibited investment from South Korean firms. And right now, South Korean companies are the only ones showing any interest. So now is as good a time as any to discuss Korean reunification. North Koreans desperately need help. Their country is in a shambles. And their southern brethren are willing to lend a hand. Or are they? In any discussion of reunification, there are three seemingly insurmountable obstacles: the cost; ideology; and, finally, language. The greatest obstacle: cost Until a few years ago, the cost of Korean reunification wasn't even an issue. Then came the reunion of East and West Germany. Koreans watched events unfold very closely, as they knew that sometime down the road they could face the same challenges. Needless to say, they were cautioned by what they saw. Even now, 7 years after reunification of the Germanies, problems remain. The areas of the former German Democratic Republic still face the combined problems of high unemployment, environmental degradation of the sort that only a command economy can tolerate, industrial backwardness, the virtual absence of a service sector and, understandably, social unrest. If one can believe published reports, North Korea is even more backward than Albania was under Enver Hoxha. Per capita income in the North is less than one-tenth of that in the South. More than 60 percent of the workforce is engaged in industrial labour, making North Korea the most industry-intensive country in the world. Consumer goods are impossible to find except in stores reserved for the very small number of foreign tourists who come to P'yongyang each year for one last, up-close look at Stalinism in action. According to recent figures published by the South Korean government, in the aftermath of reunification North Korea would require at least US$250 billion in support from the South Korean government, while the private sector would be called upon to make capital investments of upwards from US$1 trillion. This works out to a combined public/private sector outlay of almost US$30,000 per South Korean. The second problem: ideology Since its founding by Kim Il-sung almost 50 years ago, North Korea has been one of the most closed countries in the world. This has been entirely by design. Kim's contribution to the history of ideas is the somewhat bizarre notion of "Juche," or self-reliance. Since 1948, North Korea has sought to make itself completely self-sufficient in agriculture and industry. North Korea has also proven itself unwilling to share the little it produces with the rest of the world. According to recent estimates, North Korea's annual exports have the same value as approximately four days' worth of South Korea's exports. Juche may be killing North Korea, but for the moment the North's leaders seem both unwilling and unable to consider abandoning Kim Il-sung's legacy. For almost half a century, North Koreans have been told that theirs is the greatest country on the planet and that Kim Il-sung is the greatest mind yet produced by humanity (Kim's son and successor, Kim Jong-il, comes in a very close second in the "Genius Olympics"). The third problem: language One wouldn't think that language would be an obstacle in the path to reunification, since Koreans are perhaps the most homogeneous people on the planet. This is a matter of some pride for many Koreans on both sides of the demilitarized zone (DMZ), although it reminds some historically-minded foreigners of the rhetoric used in Germany in the 1930s. Consider, though, that since 1945, and especially since the end of the Korean War in 1953, South Korea has been under the powerful influence of American culture. Most street signs in Korea are in both Korean and English. Many English words have crept into the Korean vocabulary. And according to a recent report by the Korean government, there are an estimated 2,000 foreignersmost of them Canadiansteaching at private English academies in Seoul. (Estimates on the number of foreigners working illegally in Seoul range from 10,000 to 20,000. In a city with a metropolitan population of more than 12 million, it's very easy to hide.) Until the break-up of the Soviet bloc and the recent market-oriented reforms in China, Korea had done most of its business with its fellow communist countries. Since 1945, therefore, Chinese and Russian words have crept into the North Korean vocabulary. The result? On the rare occasions when representatives of the two Koreas meet, they have difficulty understanding one another. At a recent meeting in Beijing between Red Cross officials from Seoul and P'yongyang, an interpreter had to be called in so that discussions could proceed. These are just a few of the challenges South Korea must deal with if there is ever to be a reunited Korea.
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