Volume 5, Number 2

February 1992

UNEMPLOYMENT: Comparing the Statistics to Television Coverage

Gallup Canada routinely asks Canadians what they feel is "the most important problem facing this country." During the last decade, the issue that consistently topped the list was the economy. [Gallup (1990), "Fears of Economic Downswing preoccupy Canadian Public," Gallup Canada, February 5.] Even during the latter half of the 1980s, when Canada experienced significant economic growth, the economy was still perceived as the greatest problem by the majority of Canadians.

Public perception of economic problems are often linked to the media's portrayal of these issues. American communications scholar Robert Entman has remarked that the media influences public opinion "by providing much of the information people think about and by shaping how they think about it."  [Entman, Robert (1989), Democracy without Citizens: Media and the Decay of American Politics, New York: Oxford University Press, p.83.] This shaping of public opinion is particularly relevant in the coverage of economic news. Economists frequently remind us that the health of the economy is dependent upon consumer confidence. For this reason it is important that the Canadian public receive an accurate account of economic conditions.

This issue of On Balance begins a three part investigation of Canadian television news coverage of the economy over the past four years (1988-1992). Economists base their assessments of economic performance on economic indicators compiled by Statistics Canada. In this study, all stories which reported the unemployment rate, the inflation rate, gross national product, gross domestic product, retail sales, consumer spending and corporate profits were content analyzed.

The next and second issue in the series looks at television's attention to inflation. The final instalment examines general trends in reporting the economy and recession over the last four years.

Since the focus of this study is on how economic indicators are reported, the interview format of "The Journal" would skew the findings. Consequently, only CBC's "The National" and the "CTV News" are included in this study.

NETWORKS EMPHASIZE INCREASES IN UNEMPLOYMENT MORE THAN DECREASES IN JOBLESS RATE

The first objective of this study is to compare how television news reports good economic conditions versus bad economic times. The study begins in mid-1988 when the unemployment rate was Note 7.7 percent. It ends in the first quarter of 1992 when the unemployment rate rose to 10.2 percent. Between those two time periods there were eight quarters where the unemployment rate was less than 8 percent and 7 quarters where the jobless rate was above 8 percent.

From mid-1988 to the third quarter in 1990, television news paid little attention to the low unemployment rate. The unemployment rate was most reported when unemployment increased. Only 20 percent of CBC and 14 percent of CTV attention reported the unemployment rate when it was under eight percent (figure A). But when unemployment increased to 9 percent in the fourth quarter of 1990, television news gave the rate significant attention. As the unemployment rate increased, so did television reporting of the statistic. Throughout 1991 and into 1992, attention to unemployment increased as the rate increased.

Click here to view Figure A: Coverage of Low Emloyment Compared to Coverage of High Employment

In addition to merely reporting the unemployment rate itself, the number of stories and the length of the story increased as well. Over twice as many stories were reported during the period with high unemployment.

Stories that reported the high unemployment rate were almost twice as long (CBC) or three times as long (CTV) as stories which reported the low unemployment rate. Further, CTV emphasized the increase in unemployment by placing it as a lead story in five of the 16 stories; no similar practice occurred when the jobless rate went down.

For example, on 9 November 1990, Lloyd Robertson opened the newscast with the following: "Good evening. The full impact of Canada's recession became apparent today. It could be seen in the faces of the people standing in line, looking for work, work that just isn't there, for well over a million Canadians. The latest figures are out, and they show Canada's unemployment rate jumped last month to its highest level in more than three years. Today's figures show unemployment in October was 8.8 percent. That's a jump of four points from September, and it compares to a rate of 7.4 percent a year ago." Following Robertson's introduction was a full- length report by Peter Murphy.

In contrast, on 6 April 1990, when the unemployment rate fell the most in 17 years, the report was practically buried at the end of the newscast; it was the tenth story out of a total of 14 stories that day. Further, rather than having a full-length story, Lloyd Robertson alone provided the details: "The Canadian unemployment rate fell more last month than in any month for the last 17 years. Statistics Canada reported today that the national jobless rate in March dropped from 7.7 to 7.2 percent. The unemployment figures fell in each province as well." After providing the regional rates, Robertson went on to explain that the "seemingly encouraging statistics are misleading...the unemployment rates dropped because the total number of people in the labour force was much smaller. There were also fewer people looking for jobs."

ONTARIO'S UNEMPLOYMENT RATE PREOCCUPIES 1991 COVERAGE

When criticised that television overemphasizes negative news, journalists frequently respond that the nature of news is to report change. Reporting unemployment statistics enable journalists to focus on the change from a previous month or reporting period. As well, journalists tend to look at the extreme ends of the spectrum. During 1988 and 1989, when the national unemployment rate was low, the networks focused on the region with the highest unemployment rate (Atlantic Canada) and the region with the lowest rate (Ontario). When Ontario sustained a significant increase in its unemployment rate from 1989 to 1990 (5.1 percent to 6.3 percent), television news responded by increasing attention to that region. By 1991, when Ontario's unemployment rate rose to 9.6 percent, television coverage focused almost exclusively on that region.

For example, on the 8 March 1991 "National," Alison Smith reported that the "highest jumps in unemployment were in Ontario and Newfoundland--Canada's richest and poorest provinces." After providing the news that 2100 Newfoundland civil servant jobs were being cut, the remainder of the story focused on Ontario's unemployment problems. Paul Adams reported: "But the recession is also smashing through the industrial heartland of Canada's richest province: Ontario. Last month alone, 58,000 jobs in Ontario disappeared. In the small city of Renfrew, 7 factories shut in the last year costing 700 jobs. If you're looking for a job around here, as Robert Ward has been doing for two weeks now, expect to hear bad news."

Quebec's Unemployment Ignored

One problem with focusing on the extreme ends of the spectrum is revealed in Figure B. Quebec was virtually ignored throughout the four year period on English television news. Ironically, Quebec's unemployment rate was consistently above the national average for the period. Despite this fact, Quebec's unemployment rate never received the attention most other regions received.

Click here to view Figure B: Attention to Regions in Reporting Unemployment Statistics

In contrast, television news consistently reported Atlantic Canada's unemployment. During 1989, for example, unemployment in the Maritimes received 90 percent of network attention. Although at this time the rest of the country experienced relatively low unemployment rates, stories focused on the loss of employment in the fishing industry. One of the biggest stories on unemployment during that time was reports that northern cod stocks were down and that would result in layoffs in fish processing plants. For example, the 26 August 1989 "CTV News" provided an indepth story on Newfoundland. Peter Murphy began the story saying: "Endemic unemployment has long been a fact of life for Newfoundland. It's been so bad for so long, that people have all but given up hope of seeing any improvement. So many young people have left the province to find jobs that today more Newfoundlanders live off the island than on it. And this summer the exodus continues."

DECREASES IN UNEMPLOYMENT NOT NEWSWORTHY

Every month Statistics Canada provides the country's unemployment rate. From the third quarter in 1988 to the second quarter in 1992, they reported increases in the unemployment rate 25 times. The rate decreased 16 times, and showed no change in 4 of the months reported.

To determine whether Canadian television news accurately reflected the change in the rate, we compared the amount of attention television gave to the unemployment rate with that of Statistics Canada's monthly reporting.

As figure C shows, both networks over-emphasized increases in the rate and de-emphasized the instances when the unemployment rate went down. Almost three-quarters of the attention to unemployment occurred when the rate increased, despite the fact that in reality the rate was increasing only slightly over half the time.

Click here to view Figure C: TV Coverage of Unemployed Compared with Real World Changes

In contrast, while the rate decreased in over one-third of the time, attention to the decrease accounted for only 14 percent of CBC and 21 percent of CTV attention to unemployment.

BAD NEWS STORIES EMPHASIZED

Predictably, when the unemployment figure increased it was covered as a bad news story. The numbers of those who had lost work, as well as their prospects were frequently highlighted when the rate increased. Less than one-quarter of CBC and less than one fifth of CTV coverage of the increase in unemployment was neutral. Of the remainder, over two-thirds of networks stories which focused on the increase in unemployment generally commented unfavourably (figure D).

Click here to view Figure D: Coverage of Increasing Unemployment

The fact that unemployment affects the individual makes it an important story--not only for the people who live the statistic, but to the media who constantly seek the human interest angle. For example, on 8 February 1991, Lloyd Robertson introduced a story on the "CTV News": "For many of those people, there's no chance of a new job, and no choice but to go on welfare. CTV's Larry Stout looks at the human face behind those unemployment figures."

Larry Stout: Robert George is 32. A skilled toolmaker and father of four, he has been unemployed for a year. Now on welfare, he despairs of ever finding a job.

Robert George: I can't pay my mortgage. I've got an overdraft on my bank account, which is always overdrafted to the fullest amount.

Larry Stout: George and his wife Margaret fear they will lose their home. Their pride and dignity have been battered.

Despite the natural inclination to focus on how the increase in unemployment affects the individual, television news lends itself to describing the situation in extreme scenarios. For example, on 20 February 1991 Peter Mansbridge reported: "Statistics Canada says this recession is looking a lot like the worst periods of the last recession, in the early 1980s. The agency looked at its January figures, and they tell a story of a weak economy that's continuing to slide, and slide quickly. Statistics Canada says that soaring jobless numbers and sharp drops in the housing and auto industries are strikingly similar to what happened during the down days of 1981. That recession was the worst downturn since the depression of the 1930s."

Mansbridge was not the only one invoking the depression of the 1930s. On 27 December 1991, CTV's Peter Murphy reported: "For tens of thousands of workers, the recession became a depression when they lost their jobs. Dozens of factories shut down, hammered by the recession, the high dollar and a massive restructuring in manufacturing."

While one can understand why the media is sympathetic to those who have lost their jobs, the linking of this recession with the depression is misleading. As Terence Corcoran points out in a 15 January 1992 Globe and Mail column, this recession is not even as bad as the 1981-82 recession. "Compared with 1981-82, the decline in growth during 1990-91 was much lower. The unemployment rate is lower, averaging around 10 per cent, compared with 11 percent in 1981-82." [Corcoran, Terence (1992), "Markets send out a good-news message," Globe and Mail, B2, January 15.]

Furthermore, this recession is nowhere near the 1930s depression. John McCallum writes in the 9 March 1992 Financial Post that to compare this recession with the 1930s is absurd. "Thirty per cent unemployment does not compare with 10 per cent; the non-existent social safety net of the 1930s does not compare with what is in place today; output losses in the 1930s were seven times those in this recession; the 1930s was a decade-- this recession has lasted four quarters." [McCallum, John S. (1992), "Media Contribute to Recession Fears" Financial Post, March 9, p. S4.]

CTV FOCUSES ON BAD NEWS, EVEN WHEN JOBLESS RATE DECREASES

The negativity toward unemployment statistics was not restricted to those periods when the rate went up. On CTV, decreases in the rate of unemployment also received predominately negative coverage. Two-thirds of CTV assessments focussing on the decrease in unemployment were unfavourable. In contrast, CBC provided slightly more favourable than unfavourable assessments of the jobless rate decreasing.

When the unemployment figure decreased, the reports would explain why this decrease did not tell the whole picture and that probably more people were affected than the statistics represented. One explanation was that people had left the work force and were no longer represented in the unemployment rate. For example on 11 October 1991 Knowlton Nash reported: "Statistics Canada says the jobless rate fell sharply last month." After reporting the rate he said: "That may seem like positive economic news, but as Lynn Whitham reports, economists aren't exactly cheering." Whitham found that the reason for the decline in unemployment was due to "more people leaving the job market than an increase in the number of jobs."

Click here to view Figure E: Coverage of Decreasing Unemployment

Low-Paying Service Sector Jobs Criticized

Other unfavourable comments about the decline in the unemployment rate focused on the growth in the service sector--specifically "low paying service sector" jobs. For example, on 10 May 1991 Paul Adams reported: "Most of the new jobs that are appearing are in the low-skill, poorly-paid service sector. The opposition pounced on that trend as a sign the economy is not really on the mend." Liberal Opposition MP Herb Gray was then quoted: "You cannot build an economy on flipping hamburgers, let's be realistic about it, we need solid full-time jobs in sectors like manufacturing."

While service sector jobs have accounted for the majority of growth in the labour force, not one story accurately portrayed the nature of this sector of the economy. Approximately one-third of the service sector employees "flip hamburgers" or work in restaurants, the retail trade, recreation, or personal services. The remaining two-thirds are split between dynamic services such as transportation, communications, finance and business services; and non-market services which include education, health care, social services and the civil service. According to the Economic Council of Canada, job creation has been greatest in the dynamic sector in such industries as telecommunications, banking, consulting and legal services. ["Employment in the Service Economy," (1991), Economic Council of Canada; and "The Labour Force" (1992), Cat 71-001, Statistics Canada.]

Other instances of negative reporting, despite the indicator moving in a positive direction, was the media's expectation of an increase in unemployment which in fact turned out to be a decrease. In one story, Lloyd Robertson reported the lowest level of unemployment in eight years. He stated on 7 July 1989: "They show a strong economy creating plenty of new jobs, which could mean continued high interest rates to keep the economy and inflation under control." Despite that seemingly positive news, Robertson's first question to the panellist invoked his pessimistic expectation: "Given Mr. Wilson's tough budget and the high interest rate policies of the Bank of Canada, we might have expected the figures to go the other direction--that is upwards. How do you explain today's figures?"

GENERAL REPORTING OF UNEMPLOYMENT

Not all coverage of unemployment centred on the change or direction of the unemployment rate. Stories on unemployment frequently centred around expected job losses or announced layoffs. For example, on 11 December 1989 Knowlton Nash reported layoffs at National Sea Products: "A major employer in Atlantic Canada delivered a tough blow for its employees today; 1500 fish plant workers at National Sea Products found out today they won't have jobs much longer. It's the latest downturn in an industry that's seen plenty of them this year. The company says lower quotas for fish are making it impossible to keep all of its plants operating. Today, employees in St. John's, Newfoundland, and Canso, Nova Scotia, were trying to deal with the news that their plants were shutting down."

Other stories on unemployment examined how individuals were coping with the job losses. On the 23 December 1990 "CTV News" Bob Ireland reported that a support group for unemployed executives was started: "In despair, she placed an ad in a Toronto daily, inviting unemployed executives to help her start a support group. There was an overwhelming response. An executive advance resource network, or `E-A-R-N' was set up. It provides job listings and expert advice for unemployed managers on how to look for work." These general stories about unemployment comprised twice as much attention as reports of when the unemployment and employment rates increased or decreased.

Four out of every five assessments discussing unemployment in the context of other issues were unfavourable (figure F). In some cases, the unemployment figure was used to offset good economic news. For instance, on the 20 December 1991 "CTV News," Lloyd Robertson opened the second story by stating: "After looking at today's figures from Statistics Canada, some economists declared inflation dead, but there was little encouragement to be found in the figures on unemployment and bankruptcies."

Click here to view Figure F: Coverage of Unemployment in General

Similarly, on 18 October 1991, Keith Boag reported that interest rates had fallen and inflation was under control. "Take the Bank of Canada: it's steadily allowed interest rates to fall confident that will not feed inflation. Prime rates are at their lowest level in four years. But while declining inflation is good news in itself, it is not evidence the economy is in good shape overall." He continued to tell the viewers where the economy was not in good shape: "Unemployment rates are still in double digits for most of the country, and those who have jobs are being told if they want to keep them they'll have to accept less money at the bargaining table."

METHODOLOGY

Results on Unemployment are based on census samples of 42 National," and 44 "CTV National News" stories from June 1, 1988 to March 31, 1992. All stories appearing during that time were coded, representing a total population rather than a random sample of stories.

Three researchers were employed in coding the news stories. The researchers were selected on the basis of their differing political views. To assess the clarity of the research instrument and measure consistency, tests of inter-coder reliability were conducted throughout the procedure. A high level of intercoder reliability (0.88) was obtained.

Further information or details on the coding design and methods may be obtained by contacting the National Media Archive.

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