Volume 8, Number 8 - October, 1995

BAD NEWS FUELS TELEVISION'S COVERAGE OF THE ECONOMY

BY ALMOST ALL ACCOUNTS, 1994 WAS A GOOD year for the Canadian economy. Gross domestic product increased by 4.6 percent, personal income increased by 2.2 percent, unemployment fell by almost 1 percent, and inflation fell to its lowest level since 1955. But if one were to rely solely on the television news reports, one's impression of the economy might not be so positive.

On Balance has been following television's coverage of the Canadian economy for 7 years. In our last study, published in 1992, we found that economic reporting was overwhelmingly negative. Given the improvement in the economy, one would expect the stories examined in this study to be less negative. However, on CBC coverage of the economy in 1993 and 1994 was twice as frequently negative as positive, while on CTV coverage was three times as frequently negative as positive.

It may be that the news focuses on change rather than on the complete picture when it reports on the economy. Industries that have performed very well or very poorly may be more newsworthy than industries that remain constant, despite their overall impact on the economy. To test whether change was a determinant in the news agenda we compared the type of coverage to the economy, i.e., positive, negative, or neutral coverage, to the growth or decline of that industry (see figure A).

The industries that fuelled the economic growth, or performed better than 4.6 percent, were mining, manufacturing, communication, construction, and transportation. However, all 5 sectors received predominantly negative play. The reason for the negative coverage was the fall of some big players which distorted the overall view of the economy.

For example, the insurance industry was given little attention by television news until Confederation Life was closed down by regulators. As Denise Harrington reported on the August 12, 1994 Prime Time: "It is a shock, even though workers and industry watchers knew the company was on the brink of failure. After more than a century in the business, Confederation Life had come to symbolize stability and security. But large investments and a depressed real estate market in recent years had dragged the company heavily into debt."

These stories of the decline of some prominent Canadian companies overshadowed the overall message of strong economic growth.

Fishing and logging still receive disproportionate attention on TV's portrayal of the economy

In 1992, On Balance found that fishing and logging received disproportionate coverage as a percent of their contributions to GDP. In our recent analysis of economic coverage during 1993 and 1994, we found that while there has been a decline in the reporting of fishing and logging, these sectors still received a much larger share of the media reporting pie than their contributions to the economy would warrant. As Figure B shows, these sectors combined still comprise just one percent of the economy, yet together they received 13 percent of CBC and a full 16 percent of CTV attention to the various sectors of the Canadian economy. No doubt the negative events surrounding the fishing industry have lead to this inflation of coverage. Indeed, on both networks, attention to fishing was overwhelmingly negative. During 1993 and 1994, 68 percent of the statements about fishing on both CBC and CTV were negative.

For example, on March 2, 1994 Rex Murphy began his Prime Time documentary: "There's a cataclysm going on on the east coast of this country. There are two extinctions involved: The destruction of one of the world's great food resources, the Newfoundland cod fishery, and the dissolution, after 500 years, of one of the most tenacious lifestyles on the continent, the Newfoundland outport. The scenes are tranquil enough, but there's a chill menace sweeping the coastline communities of Newfoundland."

On CTV the tone was similar. On December 21, 1994 Lloyd Robertson introduced the tenth story of the day saying: "Many Canadians on the east coast had hoped for word of an improving fishing industry, but today their hopes were dashed as Fisheries Minister Brian Tobin announced another year of very little fishing and more job losses to come in 1995."

Communication and transportation sectors covered negatively on CBC

The communication and transportation sectors were also given more attention than their percentage of GDP might suggest they ought to receive. Interestingly, while the attention to communication on CTV was only slightly more negative than positive, on CBC the attention was twice as often negative as positive.

On January 21, 1994 Prime Time's Pamela Wallin stated: "Canada's main broadcast satellite, the Anik E2, is on the fritz. It is spinning through space out of control. And the 300 million dollar satellite may never recover. Television, radio, and telephone services have all been affected. And to make things worse, the trouble with E2 comes on the heels of a problem with its partner in space, Anik E1."

CTV anchor Lloyd Robertson gave a different picture of the future of television. On June 3, 1993, he stated: "Canada's broadcast regulators gave television viewers a glimpse of the future today. The CRTC unveiled a blueprint for the 200-channel universe. It will give viewers more choice, limit the cost of basic cable services, pump more money into Canadian programming, and allow cable companies to better compete with satellite services."

CTV was not as congenial towards the transportation sector, however. It presented three times as many negative as positive reports on the transportation industry. Similarly, CBC was twice as likely to present unfavourable as favourable descriptions of the transportation industry.

For example, on January 29, 1994 CTV News' Sandie Rinaldo stated: "The longshoremen's strike in British Columbia, now three days old, is already starting to hurt west coast shipping. Railway and trucking companies are reported to be switching container business to ports in Washington State. There are more than three dozen ships sitting idle in Vancouver, which is Canada's busiest port. The longer they sit there, the worse it will be for Vancouver's reputation as an unpredictable port to do business in."

And on December 14, 1994, CBC Prime Time's Peter Mansbridge introduced the top story of the day with: "Good Evening. Is air travel in Canada safe? And if not, who is to blame? The questions began with a report suggesting poor safety inspections may have caused several commuter airline crashes. Today, Transport Canada inspectors acknowledged they could do a better job, but complained the government has them handcuffed."

Manufacturing and service sectors noticed by TV

The two largest segments of the Canadian economy--manufacturing and service--did receive the most attention from network television news. Finance and real estate, in contrast, which also comprise a significant component of the economy, were under-represented as a proportion of GDP.

The attention to the service sector was balanced on CTV. Thirty-four percent of statements made positive assessments and 39 percent made negative assessments. On CBC, the coverage was less balanced. Negative statements comprised 41 percent of attention to the service sector, while positive statements comprised 25 percent.

Summary of Coverage of the Canadian Economy

Despite the fact that from 1993 to 1994 the economy as a whole grew 4.6 percent, the predominant emphasis was negative. In fact, on CBC, coverage of the economic sectors was twice as likely to be negative as positive, and on CTV coverage was three times as likely to be negative as positive.

Fishing and logging still receive disproportionate attention on TV's portrayal of the economy. While there has been a decline in the reporting of fishing and logging, these sectors still received a much larger share of the media pie than their contribution to the economy would warrant.

Methodology on Canadian Industries

Results on Canadian industries are based on census samples of 359 CBC Prime Time, 11 Sunday Report and 18 Venture as well as 359 CTV News stories from January 1, 1993 to December 31, 1994. All stories about Canadian industries appearing during that time were coded, representing a total population rather than a random sample of stories.

Further information or details on the coding design and methods may be obtained by contacting the National Media Archive.

Technology a Job Killer? A Review of CBC National Magazine's Premier

ON SEPTEMBER 4, 1995 CBC'S PRIME TIME News was renamed "The National," and Hana Gartner launched "The National Magazine."

In the past, On Balance has commended the CBC's documentary programs for providing a greater analysis of issues than is generally permitted within the fast-paced format of a standard newscast. The National Magazine's predecessor, The Journal, was one of CBC's star programs, guaranteed to tackle complex issues and known for the distinctive reporting style of host Barbara Frum.

In this issue of On Balance we assess the premier of The National Magazine in which Hana Gartner interviewed author and activist Jeremy Rifkin. Rifkin's latest book, The End of Work: The Decline of the Global Labour Force and the Dawn of the Post-Market Era, was the focus of the interview.

Luddites at large

Rifkin's argument is that technological advancements, primarily in computers, robotics, and telecommunications, are rendering human workers redundant. He predicts masses of unemployed people who have no prospect of work and no hope for the future.

During the interview, Rifkin stated: "We're making a tremendous transformation in the very nature and condition of work all over the planet. We're moving out of the industrial age and we're moving into the information age. . . . We're going to see the steady and inevitable decline of mass human labour in every country in the world."

It is an age-old argument and one must wonder at its perseverance considering its error. Technological innovations enhance productivity, and often free humans from mundane and arduous tasks. Technology is the primary reason for the high standard of living Canadians enjoy today.

Half of Rifkin's argument is indisputable. Many tasks once performed by humans are now done by machines, and many tasks have the potential to be automated in the future. But to extend the argument and suggest that the human worker will no longer be needed is to suggest that all human needs and desires have already been fulfilled.

This is obviously not the case. New businesses, new jobs, new products, and new services are constantly being created. According to the Globe and Mail, almost 14,000 businesses were started last year in Canada, and according to the Canadian Intellectual Property Office, 14,283 patents were granted in the 1993/94 fiscal year.

Rifkin's ideas go unchallenged

The role of technology and its impact on society often incites passionate debate. But on this CBC program, the pro-technology voices were virtually silenced. Towards the end of the show, former Deputy Finance Minister Stanley Hart was introduced to give some semblance of balance to the debate. However, if balance implies a degree of equality, this debate was far from balanced. The proportion of the show dedicated to Rifkin was five times greater than that allotted to Hart (see figure C).

To further compound the problem, Gartner put a negative spin on Hart's statements. Hart was explaining that economic restructuring results in dislocated workers in the short run, but economic growth in the long run. "The problem is the transition. . . . [Economic] growth causes change and comes through change." To this Gartner replied: "I get it. Rifkin is bad news in the long term, and you're bad news in the short term." Gartner ignored the essential point of Hart's argument--the good news of economic growth and an improved standard of living.

Gartner's single challenge to Rifkin was the question: "But aren't there whole sectors that perhaps we haven't addressed? We messed up the planet; we have to clean up the environment. Is that not going to create possibly a whole new category of employment?"

Rifkin's response was: "There are jobs, but they are jobs for the elite--the top 20 percent of the workforce that have knowledge-sector education, the consultants, the engineers, the scientists, the lawyers, the architects, the professional technicians."

At this point Gartner neither directed Rifkin back to the original question nor did she challenge Rifkin's claim that only the top 20 percent of the workforce would be in demand for the work of the future. In fact, she simply backed up his statement by asking, "So, what are the other 80 percent of the people living in this country going to do?"

Background research would have shown that almost 50 percent of Canadian adults have post-secondary education, and that figure is steadily rising. Nobody knows what the jobs of the future will entail, but many Canadians have anticipated that greater skills and education will be required. It is well documented that one's income rises with the number of years one has of education. As a result, enrolment in post-secondary institutions has never been higher.

Innovators create new jobs

The essential rebuttal to Rifkin's argument was provided by Stephen Hendrie, a viewer from Dorval Quebec, who saw the program and called the CBC's "Your Turn" to question: "What about all those emerging markets like Russia and China? The nature of capitalism is growth and innovation, these new markets should allow for growth, even using current or older technology, while innovation should take care of shrinking markets in the developed world."

MIT researchers David L. Birch and Susan J. MacCracken conducted a study entitled The Role Played by High Technology Firms in Job Creation. Their key finding was that high-tech firms do not directly create jobs but they serve as a key ingredient for innovation throughout the economy. High-tech firms are "essential components upon which the rest of the economy is based. Remove it and the rest of the economy dies quickly." Firms that fail to adopt innovations cannot compete and go bankrupt. Firms that embrace innovations prosper.

Birch and MacCracken further conclude that: "It is creativity, and its skill in putting technology to work, that is the strength of our economy--not the production of technology per se."

Another CBC viewer, Sholom Eisenstat, pointed out in the "Your Turn" segment that "no mention was made by Mr. Rifkin of the millions of jobs have been created by the new digital economy." One would not expect Mr. Rifkin to rebut his own argument, but it would have been an appropriate query for Host Hana Gartner.

Evidence of the new digital economy was presented on the show's predecessor, Prime Time Magazine. On June 19, 1995 Laurie Brown hosted an entire Magazine edition on the Internet and the new businesses that have sprung up to provide support services for it.

Technology and the nature of work

A number of analysts believe that the entrepreneur will play an even greater role in the future. Jacques Attali, author of Millennium: Winners and Losers in the Coming World Order, predicts that communications technologies such as the laptop computer and cellular telephones will enable individuals and small businesses to enter industries that have traditionally been the domain of large companies. "These products will greatly weaken institutions, professions and bureaucracies by permitting the individual an extraordinary degree of personal autonomy, mobility, information and power," he says. "[P]eople will be equipped with the means to perform a variety of tasks more simply and efficiently then ever before. The astonishing new information technologies will unleash formidable leaps in productivity, generating vigorous economic growth for decades to come."
_______________________________________________________________________
Jeremy Rifkin's comments to Hana Gartner on CBC's National Magazine, Sept 4, 1995

• "We're making a tremendous transformation in the very nature and condition of work, all over this planet."

• "It's affecting millions of people in every country."

• "What's happening now in every country is the polarisation between the `haves' and the `have-nots' and the creation of a dangerous two-tiered society."

• "The top twenty percent of the workforce in every country are the knowledge sector workers; they're hooked into the electronic marketplace, they're part of the global village and they're doing quite well."
_______________________________________________________________________

When is doomsday?

Economies are constantly evolving, and during periods of rapid transitions there are dislocated workers. However, technological change may not happen as quickly as many futurologists predict simply because of the limited amount of capital that firms have for investment. Levitan and Johnson, authors of The Future of Work: Does it Belong to Us or to the Robots? believe that the "size of required investment, the rate of capacity utilization and the institutional arrangements within industries all . . . slow the adoption of automated technologies."

Gartner asked Rifkin when the massive dislocation of labour would be occurring. His response: "I can pinpoint it. We're talking about a transformation that's going on now . . . creating tremendous angst, anger, frustration, bitterness--and it's being manifested both socially and politically."

Rifkin's statements went unchallenged yet again. In fact, apart from the previously-quoted question regarding the environment as a growth sector, Gartner simply reiterated all of Rifkin's predictions. For example, she asks, "So, what is going to happen to these millions and millions of labourers? Are they just doomed to be destitute and dislocated?"

Later in the program she even expands on Rifkin's hypothesis. "It could be seen in another way, too. At the basis of what you say there is something very scary. You are saying millions and millions and millions of people are going to have nothing but time on their hands; this could also mean the demise of civilization as we know it."

A wired world?

A number of Rifkin's points (see box above) are applicable to the industrialized nations of the world, but he consistently presented his argument as a worldwide phenomenon.

The reality of the international labour market is shown in figure D. The World Bank estimates that there are 2.5 billion workers throughout the world. Sixty percent are from low-income countries where the average worker takes home less than $700 U.S. per year. One-quarter of the world is from middle-income countries and the remaining 15 percent live in high-income countries, with annual per capita incomes over $8,626. Four in every 10 workers live in low or middle-income countries and work on the family farm. Industry workers from high-income countries, presumably the workers greatest at risk according Rifkin's doomsday prophesies, make up only 4 percent of the world's labour force.

Automation and unemployment

Finally, there is the argument that automation causes unemployment. This theory was first presented in this documentary by Gartner: "What is confusing is that on the one hand, we are reading about the unemployment statistics going up, on the other hand, business and government leaders are telling us, `This is just a little bad patch we're going through, there'll be a turnaround, the sun will shine tomorrow.' How will there be an economic recovery, how will the sun shine tomorrow, if the workers aren't earning the money to buy the stuff that the robots and the computers are spewing out?"

Rifkin agreed: "You have just zeroed in on one of the Achilles' heels of the information age. . . . We have many, many people--there's going to be more--who simply don't make enough money to buy all the new services and goods that are being churned out by this information age revolution."

There is no evidence to support a correlation between a high level of technology and a high unemployment rate. In fact, there is considerable evidence to the contrary. Japan is arguably the most technologically advanced country in the world, but it has the lowest unemployment rate of the OECD countries.

The future of debating

Gartner concluded the interview: "Consider this a kick-start to the debate on the future of work. We will be bringing you more on this throughout the year." One can only hope that between now and then the staff at the National Magazine examine the meaning of the word debate.

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