Shifting Priorities: From Deficit Spending to Paying down the Debt and Lowering Taxes - Evidence from the Alberta Advantage Surveys: 1995-2000

[Contents] [Next]

Executive Summary

When Ralph Klein took office from Don Getty in December 1992, Alberta had accumulated debt of nearly $6 billion, and the provincial Liberals under Laurence Decore were poised to form the next government. They were running against the Tories chiefly on the grounds of fiscal probity and smaller government. Against the odds, Klein was able to distance himself from the previous Conservative administration and to win the 1993 election using many of the policies advocated by Decore. He did this by following an unusual electoral strategy: instead of trimming and modifying policy to attract the support of median voters, those who are conventionally seen as inhabiting the middle of a left-right political spectrum, he took a position, convinced Albertans that it was a reasonable and a correct position, and argued strenuously that together they would persevere no matter how tough the going got. Moreover, the implications of downsizing government were bound to create additional opposition. Klein succeeded in increasing his majority in 1997, and polls indicate he is likely to win again in 2001.

This analysis uses data from a series of public opinion surveys—the Alberta Advantage Surveys of 1995, 1996, 1999 and 2000—to trace the impact of the policies of the Klein government on Albertans. What explains this remarkable turn of events? How can a government drastically cut spending on highly valued social programs, not immediately reduce taxes, and still continue to become increasingly popular regardless of the criticism of a well organized opposition? Even more, how is it possible for a government not only to remain in power under such circumstances, but also to convince the electorate to change its thinking on such matters? The answers include a combination of the right leadership, constant priming and preference shaping, and neutralizing the opposition.

Among the findings of this study:

• Sixty-nine percent of Albertans approve of the Klein Government’s performance.
• More and more Albertans (now more than a majority—57%) are of the view that the government’s top priority should be to pay down the debt or reduce taxes
• In 1999, nearly two in every three Albertans (62%) said they would prefer to use the surplus revenue for targeted spending on priority programs. Today only 38% of Albertans feel that way.
• Although user fees were relatively popular in 1995, support for this particular policy appears to be in decline. The most recent results show that only two in every five Albertans (40%) agree with the idea of having to pay user fees.
• Support for deficit reduction is a far more powerful predictor of support for the government’s performance than are attitudes toward the speed and size of budget cuts.
• Albertans opposed to corporate and sales taxes are more likely than those who support them to approve of the government’s actions.
• Most Albertans, some 92% indicate they are satisfied with the financial situation of the provincial government, an 11% increase from 1999. Nearly two out of three Albertans (63%) say they are very satisfied, which is a 40% increase from 1999.
• During the mid-1990s, there was considerable criticism of the government’s policy. The most recent survey indicates that things may well be changing: 67% of Albertans, for example, indicate they are satisfied with the amount of money the Klein government has spent on social programs, and more than 60% are satisfied with health care, education, and social welfare systems.

To summarize: Albertans strongly supported the general principle of deficit elimination far more than they opposed in detail the speed and size of program cuts. Subsequently, after having absorbed the pain, they take pride in the province’s gains, support the targeted reinvestment strategy, and approve of the condition of the province’s social programs.

[Contents] [Next]

info@fraserinstitute.ca You can contact us at the above email address for any comments or information requests. Please report any dead links or technical problems.

If you know someone who would be interested in this web page, please enter their email address below, and we will forward this URL to them: Email Address: