Shifting Priorities: From Deficit Spending to Paying down the Debt and Lowering Taxes - Evidence from the Alberta Advantage Surveys: 1995-2000

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What Explains the Premier’s Appeal?

It is one thing to suggest that the Premier’s personal appeal, more than anything else, is responsible for the Tories overall success, but what explains that popularity? It is not as if the Premier has no detractors (see Dabbs, 1995, 173ff). What is it about Ralph Klein that appeals to Albertans?

The evidence reflected in Figure 7 indicates three general characteristics of good leadership—effectiveness, trustworthiness, and how "in touch" leaders are with their constituents. As part of the AAS, Albertans were asked to rate several political leaders according to each of these qualities. A score of "1," for example, indicates that the leader in question is not very effective, whereas a score of "10" indicates that the leader is very effective. The results in this case correspond to citizens’ average ratings of each leader, on each particular characteristic.

Figure 7: Who is the most "Effective," "Trustworthy," and "In Touch" with Albertans? (Average scores out of 10)

Note first that, in all three cases, the Premier stands far above the leader of the opposition. In the eyes of Albertans, Premier Klein is clearly perceived as being the most effective, the most trustworthy, and the most in touch with Albertans. On average, Albertans give the Premier a 7/10 on effectiveness, 6/10 on trustworthiness, and 6/10 when it comes to being in touch with Albertans, compared to 4/10 on all three for MacBeth.

Turning next to some more specific considerations, Figure 8 shows how Albertans responded when asked to comment more directly on why they think the Premier is well liked. In 1999, for instance, slightly more than a third of Albertans (37%) said that the Premier is popular because "he eliminated the deficit and put our fiscal house in order." Another 29% claimed that the Premier is well liked because he exhibits the integrity of a people’s politician: that is he is "a politician who keeps his word" (11%); "he listens to voters and does what they want" (8%); and "when he makes a mistake, he isn’t afraid to admit it" (11%). And lastly, 33% of Albertans felt that the primary reason why Premier Klein remains at the top is because "he has no real competition or challenger."

Figure 8.1: Why is Premier Klein Popular? (Specific reasons—1999)

Figure 8.2: Why is Premier Klein Popular? (Specific reasons—2000)

Now, if we contrast that with the most recent survey, we see that the reasons behind the Premier’s popularity are beginning to shift. Thirty percent of Albertans still believe the Premier remains popular because he has no real competition. However, an increasing number feel that Klein is popular because "he keeps his word" and admits when he has "made a mistake," whereas the proportion of Albertans who claim he is popular because "he eliminated the deficit and put our fiscal house in order," has declined by 10%. One of the reasons for this comparative decline is that deficit elimination is yesterday’s news. It has been completed; it is a success. So, now what?

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